Are Russia and Europe interdependent? Patrice Geoffron, professor of economics at Paris Dauphine University, director of the center for Geopolitics of energy and raw materials, explained on Monday January 31 on franceinfo that the crisis in Ukraine is testing “sort of” the “double dependency” gas from Russia and Europe. The threat of an invasion by Russian troops in Ukraine could deal a fatal blow to Russian gas imports to the European Union, especially since “40% of the gas consumed in Europe comes from Russia”, he says. Corn “there is also a very strong dependence of Russia vis-à-vis Europe, which is its main outlet”he points out.
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franceinfo: Do Europeans absolutely need Russian gas?
Patrice Geoffron: Yes, it is obvious. 40% of the gas consumed in Europe comes from Russia. All this being extremely heterogeneous. This goes from countries that are 100% dependent, since we are rather to the east of Europe, but comparatively France consumes gas that comes from Russia at less than 20% and in Spain we are practically at nothing .
Does Europe have gas stocks?
There are stocks. But these stocks happen to be at levels that are rather lower than what we see on average over the previous five years. That’s part of the problem. And if we had to imagine fallback solutions, they are undoubtedly at higher costs. These fallback solutions could come via liquefied natural gas which comes by special boats. We are in a technical architecture that is quite complex. It does not enter any port. There is a part which already comes from the United States, which could also come from Qatar. But the whole difficulty is not only to manage to bring it to Europe at costs that are not prohibitive, but also to transport this gas to the consumption areas which could be affected and therefore rather to the east of Europe.
Can Europeans decide not to buy gas from Russia anymore?
No, that seems difficult in the same way that there is also a very strong dependence of Russia vis-à-vis Europe, which is its main outlet and its best customer in all respects. So there is a bilateral dependency and this crisis is a way of testing this double dependency in a way.
Russia can’t say, “we don’t sell our gas anymore”?
It probably won’t happen in those terms at least not at the beginning of the conflict if there were to be a conflict. On the other hand, what could happen is that the gas pipeline that crosses Ukraine be interrupted, which would lead to the interruption of what today accounts for roughly a large quarter of Russian gas in Europe. This could further strain supplies. And then, beyond that, if there were to be this type of interruption in the phenomenon, one of the issues is whether or not to open the new Nord Stream 2 infrastructure which is intended, precisely, via the Baltic, to circumvent the entire problem, so to speak, but which would become even more of a geopolitical issue with American pressure not to inaugurate it.