Roland-Garros | The clay of all possibilities

You would have to wear the fullest of waxed mustaches and the neatest of three-piece suits to accurately determine who will emerge victorious from the Roland-Garros men’s tournament. As in a Hercule Poirot investigation, the candidates are numerous and appearances are sometimes deceptive. Who will be the last player still alive at the end of this Parisian journey?

In this table there are 10 contenders with excessive ambitions, damaged confidence or damaged bodies. It is almost mission impossible, at the start of the fortnight, to make any prediction with certainty, as this tournament is so unpredictable. In a way, that’s also what makes it so appealing.

The world order has been shaken up in recent weeks. The number of contenders for the title is higher than it has ever been in two decades.

Novak Djokovic? No final in 2024 and two defeats in two matches against players from top 10.

Jannik Sinner? Unquestionably the best player since January, but absent from the circuit since April 30 due to a hip injury.

Carlos Alcaraz? No final on clay in 2024. In addition, he has been damaged since the beginning of spring.

Until now, it has been impossible to choose just one member of this triad.

Alexander Zverev? A triumph at the Rome tournament.

Daniel Medvedev? Lost two prestigious finals, at the Australian Open and Indian Wells.

Andrey Rublev? A title in Madrid.

Casper Ruud? A victory in Barcelona.

Hubert Hurkacz? Champion in Estoril.

Stefanos Tsitsipas? Winner in Monte-Carlo.

All players on one hell of a streak.

Then Grigor Dimitrov? Thirty-three years old, but finalist in Miami and Marseille.

The investigation promises to be complex until the end.

Lots of possible winners

The most annoying thing in this quest for truth is to see to what extent, for weeks, no certainty has held up.

Starting with Djokovic, helpless and visibly slowed down since the turn of the new year. The reigning tournament winner, and his sport’s greatest champion, is unrecognizable. The eye of the tiger seems to have gone out.

And his ability to always hang on to come back stronger and take control of a match has evaporated. Four of his five defeats this season ended in three sets or more, whereas previously, the longer the match was, the more Djoko was able to make his opponents suffer.

Speaking of suffering, Jannik Sinner is recovering. His hip has gotten better, he assures. But he hesitated to take part in the tournament. Due to changes in direction and surface instability, coming back from a hip injury on clay is far from optimal. Hopes are fragile, but if Sinner survives, it will confirm his status as the best player in the world.

The one who will undoubtedly become his biggest rival, Carlos Alcaraz, has already sat on the throne reserved for the first player in the world ranking. Rafael Nadal’s expected runner-up and new legitimate tennis sensation, the most promising player on clay has lost his bearings on the surface that in some way gave birth to him. Will he rise from his ashes in this Parisian wake? Nothing is less sure. An injury to his right arm suddenly slowed him down and the young Spaniard is still trying to get back on track.

This is why it is possible that the eventual chosen one comes from the middle of the pack. In fact, the sacrificed generation of these players in their late twenties, arriving in the era of the Big Three and caught up by the young guns, could live their hour of glory.

Alexander Zverev regains his place on the world stage. It was smoking hot in Rome. Andrey Rublev destroyed everything in his path to Madrid. He was unwavering. Casper Ruud, finally in full possession of his means, proves every week that he is one of the three best clay court players in the world. Then Stéfanos Tsitsipás, back in the discussions, can beat anyone in a given tournament.

The song of the Swan

And why not…Rafael Nadal? He is worn, he is aging and he will face Alexander Zverev in the first round. It will also be his last lap at Roland Garros, where he has already won 14 times.

But Nadal is Nadal. And a chef in his own kitchen can work miracles even if he lacks ingredients and utensils. His last two major tournaments will go down in history as titles that he should not have won.

In Australia, in 2022, he had difficulty standing. He was injured in the upper and lower body. But he still triumphed in a final lasting more than five hours against Medvedev. At Roland Garros in 2022, his draw was complex when he beat Félix Auger-Aliassime, Novak Djokovic and Casper Ruud.

In summary, anything is possible.

Because it’s Nadal, because it’s at Roland Garros, and because only heroes know how to start the right way. And we must admit that if he were the last one to stand at the Porte d’Auteuil, it would be completely worthy of Agatha Christie’s greatest novels.