RN on track to win between 175 and 205 seats, far from an absolute majority according to our poll

According to the Ipsos-Talan survey for Radio France and France Télévisions before the second round, the far-right party and its allies would win the most seats in the National Assembly, but they would be far from obtaining an absolute majority, set at 289 seats.

Franceinfo would like to point out that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of opinion at a given moment. A poll is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error.

The RN and its allies are able to win between 175 and 205 seats in the National Assembly at the end of the second round of the legislative elections, according to an Ipsos-Talan survey for Radio France and France Télévisions, published on Friday, July 5. Far, therefore, from an absolute majority set at 289 seats. As a reminder, 88 deputies sat in the RN group of the outgoing Assembly.

The presidential camp Ensemble obtained 118 to 148 seats according to the survey (245 before the dissolution). The New Popular Front collected 145 to 175 seats (compared to 133 previously for Nupes, to which were added 20 miscellaneous left-wing deputies). As for the candidates Les Républicains-miscellaneous right (excluding the RN alliance), they were credited with 57 to 67 seats (74 seats before the dissolution).

In detail, according to this projection, La France insoumise obtains 58 to 68 seats (against 75 in the outgoing Assembly), the Communist Party 7 to 9 (against 22 in the communist group of the outgoing Assembly), the Ecologists 29 to 37 seats (against 21 in the outgoing Assembly) and the Socialist Party 51 to 61 seats (against 31 in the outgoing Assembly). Beyond the New Popular Front, the various left-wing parties are credited with 14 to 16 seats.

Still in detail, in the former majority, the MoDem obtains 23 to 31 seats (against 50 in the outgoing Assembly), Renaissance 78 to 94 seats (against 169) and Horizons 17 to 23 seats (against 31). The various centers and the UDI are credited with 6 to 8 seats.

On the side of the National Rally and its allies, the LR supported by the RN can hope for 18 to 24 seats, and the RN as such is credited with 157 to 181 seats.

Regarding participation, it is up for this second round of early legislative elections: between 66% and 70% of those surveyed say they will go to the polls. During the first round, 66.7% of voters went to vote. Note that according to the study, the participation rate promises to be high, regardless of party affiliation.

54% of respondents approve of the voting instructions given by the New Popular Front so that the NFP candidate withdraws to prevent the victory of a candidate supported by the RN and its allies. This figure increases significantly (87%) when the question is asked of respondents who voted for an NFP candidate in the first round. On the other hand, 89% of respondents who voted for an RN candidate or an LR candidate supported by the RN in the first round disapprove of these instructions.

In constituencies where an Ensemble candidate came in third place, 56% of respondents say they approve of the voting instructions given by some Ensemble leaders so that this candidate withdraws in favor of the NFP candidate, to prevent the victory of the candidate supported by the RN and its allies. In detail, 32% say they approve regardless of the NFP candidate and 24% say they approve only if the NFP candidate is not from LFI. This figure of 54% increases significantly (95%) when the question is asked of respondents who voted for an NFP candidate in the first round. On the other hand, 89% of respondents who voted for an RN candidate or an LR candidate supported by the RN in the first round disapprove of these instructions.

Regarding the feelings experienced in the event of an absolute majority for the NFP, negative feelings first emerge. Those surveyed say they feel above all worry (40%), fear (28%) and then hope (21%). Same question in the event of an absolute majority for the RN and its allies. Here again, negative feelings prevail, but this time, the level of worry rises to 35%, to 27% for fear. The third feeling is shame at 26%.

Survey conducted by Ispos-Talan for Radio France, France Télévisions and Le Monde from July 3 to 4, on a representative sample of 10,101 people, constituting a national sample representative of the French population, registered on the electoral lists, aged 18 and over, according to the quota method (sex, age, occupation of the person questioned, category of agglomeration, region). The sample was questioned via the Internet.