RN on track to win between 175 and 205 seats, far from an absolute majority according to our poll

According to this opinion poll, the far-right party would win the most seats in the National Assembly, but it would be far from obtaining an absolute majority, set at 289 seats.

Franceinfo would like to point out that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of opinion at a given moment. A poll is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error.

The RN and its allies are able to win between 175 and 205 seats in the National Assembly, according to an Ipsos-Talan survey for Radio France and France Télévisions, published on Friday, July 5. Far, therefore, from an absolute majority set at 289 seats. As a reminder, before the dissolution, 89 RN deputies were sitting.

The presidential camp Ensemble obtained 118 to 148 seats according to the survey (245 before the dissolution). The New Popular Front collected 145 to 175 seats (compared to 133 previously for the Nupes, to which were added 20 Miscellaneous Left deputies). As for the LR/DVD (excluding the RN alliance), they were credited with 57 to 67 seats (74 seats before the dissolution).

Survey conducted by Ispos-Talan for Radio France, France Télévisions and Le Monde from July 3 to 4, on a representative sample of 10,101 people, constituting a national sample representative of the French population, registered on the electoral lists, aged 18 and over, according to the quota method (sex, age, occupation of the person questioned, category of agglomeration, region). The sample was questioned via the Internet.