Rising waters in the Pacific: “There is a great need for adaptation for these territories”, analyses a climate geopolitician

The UN Secretary-General issued a “global SOS” on rising sea levels in the Pacific on Tuesday at the Pacific Islands Forum summit.

“At present [la montée des eaux] is relatively irreversible […] This means that there is a real need for adaptation for these territories, with obviously a terrible question: until when can they still be inhabited?”asks François Gemenne, climate geopolitician, member of the IPCC and professor at HEC, on franceinfo on Tuesday, August 27. On Tuesday, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres launched a “Worldwide SOS” on rising sea levels in the Pacific at the Pacific Islands Forum summit, unveiling research showing that the sea level is rising faster than the global average.

franceinfo : So the Pacific Islands are really in danger of disappearing?

Francois Gemenne : Some of their territories are threatened with extinction because they are faced with a double problem. The first is that the sea level rise in this area is faster than the global average. The second is that many of these territories are coral atolls, therefore very low elevation, with for some, a high point two or three meters above sea level.

“Any rise in sea level thus threatens not only the habitat, but also the economy and agriculture of these countries.”

Francois Gemenne

to franceinfo

The rise in sea levels in the Pacific is greater than the global average because the warming of the sea is more marked there than elsewhere and there is a phenomenon of marine currents. We tend to imagine that the rise in sea levels is uniform across the planet, but there are very big differences depending on the region of the world.

Is this reversible at present?

At present, it is relatively irreversible. Even if we stopped global warming, there is the phenomenon of inertia which means that the rise in sea level would probably continue until the 22nd century. This means that there is a real need for adaptation for these territories, with obviously a terrible question: until when will they still be able to be inhabited? Will there come a time when it will no longer be possible to live on some of these islands? And so will we have to resolve to relocate the population?

These territories are already adapting to global warming ?

A lot has already been done in terms of adapting agriculture, for example, and also in terms of defending against rising sea levels. The difficulty is that we are on very small islands, sometimes located at water level and inhabited by few inhabitants, and so we will ask ourselves whether it is worth investing in adaptation resources to preserve these territories and whether it would not be simpler to relocate part of the population.

This is what some states in the region have started to do. For example, Australia negotiated an agreement with Tuvalu last year to grant climate visas to Tuvaluans who feel threatened by rising sea levels and want to move permanently to Australia. This is an agreement that is part of a perspective of geopolitical cooperation. Australia was afraid that Tuvalu and the other Pacific islands would turn to China for protection.

The archipelago is very worried about its sovereignty after this agreement with the fear that welcoming climate refugees will be to the detriment of the sovereignty of the States. ?

There is a very serious question of sovereignty that arises. Could the islands concerned retain their status as states in international law even if their territories became uninhabitable? When your territory is gradually disappearing due to the actions of other states over which you have virtually no control, what does national sovereignty still mean? This is a real question that also brings us back to the links we make between the state and the territory.

It is possible that other island states in the region may want to negotiate the same type of agreement with Australia, New Zealand or even France, which also has territories in the region, especially since some French overseas territories, in New Caledonia or Polynesia, are in exactly the same situation and face the same risks.