In eight days, Nigeria has already experienced two complete electricity blackouts: no electricity at all for the country’s 210 million inhabitants for several hours. Complete black. And even today, 40% of the country is without electricity. Load shedding is frequent, even in upscale neighborhoods. More than a dozen power plants are totally or partially shut down.
The inhabitants therefore have recourse to electric generators, but they must be supplied with gasoline. As a result, queues are getting longer in front of service stations. As a result, the political situation is tense. The debates are agitated in Parliament, where the opposition denounces “the nonchalance of the government”. On Tuesday March 22, President Muhammadu Buhari apologized to the people in a letter published in all the media. He promises to resolve the crisis quickly. But the case looks complicated. Because the prices are soaring: those of gas (and the Nigerian network depends 80% on gas), and those of oil. For example, the price of a liter of diesel fuel at the pump has tripled in a few days.
It is a consequence of the war in Ukraine, but not only. Conflict accelerates the process as energy prices increase. But where it becomes paradoxical is that in theory it should benefit Nigeria: it is the leading producer of crude oil in Africa, nearly one and a half million barrels per day. The explanation is simple. Nigeria produces crude but has virtually no refineries to turn it into gasoline. So it imports most of its energy and it is subject to market variations.
As for the electricity network, it is dilapidated, often badly maintained, unsuited to the spectacular economic and demographic growth of the African giant. Electricity demand far exceeds generation and distribution capacity. Finally, corruption does the rest. Public subsidies paid by the State to control prices are partly diverted. And these subsidies are considerable: nearly a billion euros per year for 20 years. So the state goes into debt. It’s a vicious circle.
These power cuts also have chain effects on the economy. Many small businesses are closing their doors: they cannot function without electricity. Some companies send their employees home or limit their working hours, again to curb the electricity bill. And then the surge in gasoline prices has an impact on transport, and therefore on the supply of food products. Inflation exceeds 15%.
The risk of social anger is real, especially since a third of the population lives in extreme poverty. What’s more, Ramadan starts on April 1st. In this country where more than half of the population is Muslim, it is obviously a very special month for consumption and travel. A new electrical blackout could therefore have serious consequences.