The rise in the number of COVID-19 cases over the holidays was even worse than the most pessimistic of scenarios projected by federal scientists in December. Even so, the brunt of the storm should be behind us, with Ottawa scientists projecting sharp declines in daily cases and hospitalizations after peaking in recent days.
“It’s always difficult [à dire], because with modeling, it’s based on the data we currently have. It’s not like a crystal ball, since we control our own destiny, “said Deputy Chief Public Health Officer Dr.r Howard Njoo, during a technical briefing on Friday.
He presented, alongside the DD Theresa Tam, pandemic models suggesting the country will peak in daily COVID-19 cases in mid-January at between 100,000 and 400,000 new cases per day.
This large amplitude is explained by the uncertainty in relation to the data and the vagueness surrounding the real effectiveness of the new public health measures enacted in December, such as the curfew in Quebec.
On December 10, Federal Public Health presented models that were completely disproved by the new wave of the Omicron variant. According to the most likely scenario, public health authorities were preparing to deal with around 12,000 new cases a day in early January. In fact, the increase in new cases even exceeded the most pessimistic scenario considered.
Peak may be reached
According to Federal Public Health mathematical models, “a pronounced peak [des nouveaux cas de COVID-19] followed by a decline in the number of cases” around the middle of January. A similar drop in hospitalizations is also to be expected, a few days later.
These data seem to accredit the studies of the National Institute of Public Health of Quebec (INSPQ), presented by Prime Minister François Legault, Thursday, which conclude that the top of the curve, in Quebec, would have been reached a few days ago. . A “peak in hospitalizations” would be in sight for the next few days, according to Quebec.
“If public health authorities [provinciales] see perhaps with the trends that we have exceeded the peak, yes it is possible that in a few weeks we will also have a decline with the hospitalization rates too, ”said the Dr Njoo.
His colleague, the DD Tam, argues that we are “in a gray area”, from which it is not yet possible to say precisely the date when Canada has, or will have, reached this famous “peak” of the wave caused by the Omicron variant .
“A number of provinces [comme le Québec], those who received Omicron earliest, saw stabilization in their daily case counts. This is the first sign that we are approaching the peak,” she said.
The two scientific advisers to the Trudeau government insist that vaccination against COVID-19 is important to end the pandemic, as well as obtaining a booster dose. However, they indicate that the latter is not as effective against the Omicron variant as against the Delta variant in providing protection against the virus.