(Washington) As the Supreme Court considers the future of the landmark Roe v. Wade’s 1973 resurgent anti-abortion movement seeks to gain the upper hand in state-to-state battles, as abortion rights advocates prepare to play the defense.
Both sides appear to be assuming that a court reshaped by former President Donald Trump will overturn or seriously weaken the Roe v. Wade.
“We have a storm to weather,” said Elizabeth Nash, state policy analyst for the Guttmacher Institute, a research organization that supports abortion rights. “We have to weather the storm so that in the future – in five, ten or fifteen years – we can talk about how we managed to repeal all these abortion bans.”
The institute estimates that as many as 26 states would put some sort of abortion access restriction in place within the year, if the court allows it. At least 12 states have ongoing “induction bans”, with restrictions that would automatically come into effect if judges roll back or weaken federal protections on abortion access.
The case currently before the Court, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, concerns a Mississippi law that prohibits abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Roe v. Wade, which was reaffirmed in a later 1992 decision in Planned Parenthood v. Casey, allows states to regulate, but not prohibit abortion up to the point of fetal viability, at around 24 weeks.
The fate of the Mississippi case won’t be known for months, but according to early argument, Roe v. Wade appears to be in peril. The court’s six conservative justices, including Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barret, appointed by former President Donald Trump, have indicated they will uphold Mississippi’s law.
“There is no doubt that what we heard from the Supreme Court was incredibly disturbing,” said Ianthe Metzger, director of state media campaigns for the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, one of the largest defenders of the right to access to abortion. “It wasn’t really surprising, but it was alarming.”
Susan Arnall, outreach director of the Right to Life League, an anti-abortion organization, said she was particularly encouraged by Judge Samuel Alito’s emphasis on the concept of “sustainability.” of the fetus as a guiding principle to prohibit voluntary termination of pregnancy. She predicts that advances in modern medicine will continue to narrow the window into which a fetus is unsustainable, opening the door to a host of medically complex debates.
“Sustainability is something that is subject to medical science,” Mr.me Arnall. “It’s going to become intensely legal and intensely medical. It will be a battle between lawyers and doctors ”.
Both sides appear to have been preparing for this moment for years, not least because Donald Trump installed more than 200 federal judges and three Supreme Court justices during his presidency. Pro-abortion groups donated $ 8 million in 2018 and more than $ 10 million in 2020, according to Open Secrets, a non-partisan group that tracks political spending.
These numbers exceed the public contributions of anti-abortion groups, which donated $ 2.6 million in 2018 and $ 6.3 million in 2020. But the complexity of the network of nonprofits and funds “of” black money ”makes it difficult to produce a complete account of the flow of money.
If Washington is the main battleground today, many leaders of the conservative movement consider the legal battle to be won in advance and the disappearance of the Roe v. Wade like a fate. The next battleground will then be a cat and mouse fight in state legislatures and in next year’s elections across the country.
“People are realizing that in seven months we will probably be facing this issue at the state level,” said Brian Burch, president of CatholicVote. “It will become much more important in state electoral races, especially gubernatorial races.”
The legislatures of many Republican-led states are prepared to act on the Supreme Court’s ruling. Wednesday, the 6e U.S. circuit appeals court overturned previous rulings that had blocked a Tennessee law banning abortions as soon as a fetal heartbeat is detected – around six weeks – and ordered a new hearing by the plenary court.
“The battle has been fought in state chambers for decades and will escalate,” said Mme Nash.
The Supreme Court’s decision is expected around June, which almost guarantees the issue will dominate next fall’s congressional elections as well as state-level races across the country.
“It’s a perfect timetable, just before the midterm elections,” said Mme Arnall of the Right to Life League.
The move could spark a wave of activity regarding medical abortions – a medical option that was not there when Roe v. Wade has become law. The pills were approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2000, with restrictions such as requiring an in-person clinic visit before the two-pill regimen could be prescribed and a ban on sending them by. the post office.
These restrictions were relaxed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Women who wish to obtain these pills can now receive them in the mail after a remote consultation with a doctor, without the need to go to a clinic. The FDA is expected to reconsider this position soon, but either way, these policies should come under immediate attack from Republican-controlled states.
“Medical abortions will be high on the agenda.” added Mme Nash. “This is the new frontier”.
Texas, which passed a law effectively banning most surgical abortions after six weeks, has a new restriction that makes the supply of medical abortion pills after seven weeks pregnant a crime and criminalizes sending the drugs through. the post office.
“A disinformation campaign coordinated by anti-choice and anti-freedom politicians and activists has once again enabled Texas to put care out of reach – especially for those already marginalized by our health care system,” NARAL Pro Choice President Mini Timmaraju mentioned in a statement. “There is no end to the cruel measures anti-choice extremists will take in their quest for power and control.”
Despite these historic setbacks, proponents of abortion access say they are prepared for the state-by-state struggle and are devising multiple ways to help women seeking abortions travel to states where they can. do it. Mme Metzger, of Planned Parenthood, predicted that this new threat will trigger a massive wave of public support for the right to abortion.
“There is no doubt that (the opponents of abortion) have played a game of 40 years,” said Mr.me Metzger. “For us, it’s just a matter of continuing to sound the alarm bells. People see that the threat is real. It is no longer a theoretical argument ”.