Developed OECD countries must abandon all fossil fuels by 2040, and the rest of the world by 2050, according to a reassessment by renowned climate scientists, which they addressed on Friday to the head of the UN and the UN Climate, in the midst of COP28 negotiations.
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This note, consulted by AFP, concludes that it is necessary to adopt such a timetable, tighter than expected, if the world wants to limit global warming to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era, heart negotiations which are being held in Dubai until December 12.
The calendar is the result of calculations by Johan Röckstrom, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, and his counterpart Pierre Friedlingstein, of the University of Exeter in England, who They sent on Friday to the Secretary General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, and to the UN Climate.
The two climatologists base their conclusions on the IPCC’s estimates of the remaining “carbon budget” to meet the limit of 1.5°C, that is to say the quantity of greenhouse gases that remain to be emitted. in the atmosphere to cause such warming.
“Knowing whether we will achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 or whether we will only be content with a very strong reduction” in fossil fuels “should not be the heart of the debates” at COP28, warns Johan Rockström.
In Dubai, “discussions should focus on serious and fair efforts to start implementing an exit plan,” he says.
According to the note, OECD countries are expected to abandon coal by 2030, followed by the rest of the world by 2040.
For oil and gas, the exit should take place in 2040 for the OECD and 2050 for the others.
But even this timetable is potentially insufficient, given some more pessimistic estimates of the remaining carbon budget, which would require a total exit from fossil fuels for the OECD by 2030 and for the others by 2040.
Such a timetable is improbable, foreseen in any of the energy transition scenarios, even the most optimistic.
Global greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from the combustion of fossil fuels, must decrease by around 6 or 7% per year and reach a reduction in half by 2030 compared to today, recall the climatologists, relying on the IPCC and the International Energy Agency.