Limiting global climate disruption to a viable threshold requires rich countries to bring forward their carbon neutrality target to 2045, concludes the International Energy Agency (IEA) in a report published on Tuesday. The organization also emphasizes that new fossil fuel projects looming on the horizon, particularly in Canada, should not be authorized.
Nearly eight years after the signing of the Paris Agreement, the conclusions of this second edition of the IEA’s “Roadmap towards carbon neutrality” are unequivocal: we must press the accelerator of the transition now energy if we want to give ourselves a chance of respecting the objective of this climate agreement, namely to limit warming to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era.
The current picture of the situation shows that the hope of reaching this target “has shrunk”. The IEA thus underlines that the post-pandemic recovery was marked by a surge in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the energy sector. These reached 37 billion tonnes in 2022, a “worrying” record.
However, this does not mean that we must abandon the 1.5°C objective, argues Fatih Birol, director general of the IEA, in the presentation text of the 227-page report obtained Monday under embargo. But for us to achieve this, and thus avoid the worst of the repercussions of the climate crisis, developed countries will have to demonstrate unprecedented ambition “by taking the lead” in terms of reducing GHGs.
“Carbon neutrality in 2050 does not mean that all countries must achieve it in 2050. According to our scenario, developed countries must reach net zero earlier in order to give developing countries more time,” argues Mr. Birol .
Concretely, rich societies, like Canada or Quebec, should increase their climate ambition and reduce their emissions by 80% by 2035, compared to the 2022 level. However, it is not possible to calculate precisely what would be the additional effort required here, since the Quebec and Canadian inventories of GHG emissions are not yet available for 2022.
Developed countries must also advance their overall carbon neutrality objective to move towards “net zero” in 2045, according to the IEA. Currently, Canada and Quebec hope to achieve this target in 2050, but by relying on measures that remain to be put in place and financed.
If the International Energy Agency recognizes that states are not all equal in the face of the colossal challenge of carbon neutrality, all must “act with much more firmness than they currently do”.
Any delay in raising climate “ambition” this decade would require us to rely on technologies like carbon capture and storage, which are “expensive” and unproven. The oil sands industry is banking heavily on the development of this type of technology to reduce its emissions.
End of fossils
Although fossil fuels will likely continue to have a place in the global energy landscape after 2050, the IEA notes that there is no longer a place for approving new oil and natural gas production projects. However, at present, exploration projects are still approved in Canada, and others could see the light of day, particularly in the marine environment off the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Fortunately, underlines the report, the development of renewable energies such as solar or wind power is now experiencing “unprecedented” growth on a global scale. Globally, investments in “clean energy” are expected to be around $1,800 billion in 2023. But to maintain the momentum of the transition, they will need to be increased to $4,500 billion per year by the start of the 2030s.
The IEA adds that this acceleration in the deployment of non-GHG emitting energies has made it possible to improve climate forecasts. Before the signing of the Paris Agreement in December 2015, the planet was heading towards warming of at least 3.5°C by the end of the century. Now, if we assume that all States respect their commitments, this warming would be around 2.4°C, which nevertheless remains very “worrying”.
In this context, Fatih Birol pleads for the separation of the climate issue from the “international tensions” which currently exist, in particular due to the war in Ukraine, but also between large emitters such as China and the United States. “Climate change is indifferent to national rivalries and borders,” he writes. All countries must work together, or we will all lose in the end. »
In the context where 2023 is on track to become the hottest year humanity has known, Mr. Birol also believes that the next United Nations climate conference (COP28) will constitute “an important test”, since we will make a first assessment of the implementation of the Paris Agreement.