Two leaked intelligence documents detailing Israeli plans for potential attacks against Iran have surfaced online, raising concerns among American officials. The classified reports, dated October 15 and 16, outline preparations at Israeli air bases, including missile relocations and drone unit readiness. The authenticity of the documents has been confirmed, though questions remain about their source. The leak may strain US-Israel relations, especially amidst tensions over recent Iranian missile strikes and calls for a ceasefire from the Biden administration.
Recently, two intelligence documents revealing potential Israeli military actions against Iran were leaked in the United States. Dated October 15 and 16, these documents emerged on the pro-Iranian social media account Middle East Spectator via Telegram. Sources familiar with the situation informed CNN that one of these individuals validated the authenticity of the classified files.
Insights into Israeli Military Operations
An official from the U.S. government expressed significant concerns regarding the leak, emphasizing that the information was exclusively intended for the intelligence agencies of the U.S. and its “Five Eyes” partners—Canada, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand.
According to Axios, the documents outline recent preparations at various Israeli air bases, including the relocation of air-to-ground missiles and the simulated in-flight refueling of aircraft, both reconnaissance and fighter jets. Additionally, these reports discuss the readiness of Israeli drone units for potential action against Iran. One document, detailing the movement of ammunition, is attributed to the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, while the information regarding missile movement comes from the National Security Agency. As of now, neither the Pentagon nor the intelligence agencies involved have made any comments regarding these revelations, though they have not disputed the documents’ legitimacy.
If verified, this information suggests that U.S. intelligence is closely monitoring Israel’s preparations for an attack on Iran, including satellite tracking of air force bases.
Investigating the Source of the Leak
The tensions escalated after Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles towards Israel on October 1, leading Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare a stance of retaliation. A pressing question remains whether Israel intends to target Iranian nuclear facilities. However, such strategies are not referenced in the leaked documents. Reports indicate that Netanyahu reassured the Biden administration mere days prior that Israel would refrain from attacking Iranian nuclear or oil installations.
Notably, the documents subtly allude to Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons, a fact that is typically not publicly acknowledged. They clarify that there is currently no indication Israel intends to deploy nuclear arms against Iran.
It remains uncertain whether the leaks were a result of insider actions or external hacking. There have been discussions surrounding Iran’s potential hacks into U.S. computer systems, especially in light of the American electoral landscape. Media outlets previously reported that Tehran had gained access to information from Trump’s election campaign team.
Impact on U.S.-Israel Relations
Previous instances, such as a military officer’s scandal involving the leaked plans for a Ukrainian offensive on a gaming platform, have raised alarms. That incident became public knowledge in April 2023, following widespread circulation of the information.
The FBI is reportedly on an intensive hunt for a potential insider within intelligence or the Department of Defense, working to identify individuals who had access to Pentagon documents. Former Deputy Secretary of Defense Mick Mulroy described this leak as a significant breach, potentially undermining future collaboration between the U.S. and Israel. Trust is crucial for their cooperation, and this may be compromised depending on the leak’s circumstances. However, another official conveyed that while the release of this intelligence is concerning, it may not have catastrophic implications; the primary worry lies in the possibility of further leaks.
This incident arises amidst already strained U.S.-Israel relations, particularly after President Biden’s repeated calls for a ceasefire, which have largely gone unheeded by Netanyahu. Many speculate that Israel might plan a retaliatory strike against Iran before the upcoming U.S. elections on November 5.