return of nationalists to power?

The “Micro European” meeting is devoted to the legislative elections on Sunday September 29, with Danny Leder, journalist, Austrian correspondent in Paris.

As our colleague Sébastien Baer points out, this morning on franceinfo, a few hours before the legislative elections in Austria, this Sunday September 29, 2024, the far right seems to have the wind in its sails. Decryption in European microphonewith Danny Leder, journalist, Austrian correspondent in Paris.

franceinfo: The president of the republic in Autrice is Alexander Van der Bellen, a green, the chancellor Karl Nehammer comes from the ÖVP party, the Christian Democrats, Liberals, Conservatives. What are the predictions for this election?

Danny Leder: First comes the far-right party, the FPÖ, under the leadership of a rather radical leader, Herbert Kickl. This party should arrive, according to polls, at 27%. So he will have the relative majority. It is followed by the party you just mentioned, the ÖVP, about 25%, according to polls, which currently leads Austria in coalition with the center-left Green party. Karl Nehammer is a rather lackluster prime minister .

Then the social democrats of the SPÖ are given up to 21%. So, we have a situation favorable to the extreme right. That said, Austria has a parliamentary system, almost fully proportional, which means that even with its 27%, on its own, the far right can do nothing. We need a coalition partner, and that will be very difficult this time.

We have not mentioned the other two parties, these are the Greens of Werner Kogler, and the NEOS of Beate Meinl-Reisinger, these are the liberals. What about these two parties?

They are given 9 to 10% for each of these center-left parties which resemble each other in a certain way, and which will play a decisive role, to the extent that if the conservatives decide not to enter into a coalition with the extreme right, in this case, the only valid alternative for a stable parliamentary majority, to block the extreme right, would require a three-way coalition between the conservatives, the social democrats and a third party which could be, either the NEOS, this small liberal party, or in third position in their place, the Greens.

But what militates a little against this choice is the German counter-example. That is to say that the three-way coalition which currently reigns in Germany gives a bad image, an image of paralysis. This is very important for all of Europe. Let’s imagine that the ÖVP, i.e. the conservatives, enters into a coalition with the FPÖ.

Are the FPÖ the nationalists?

Yes, and if Herbert Kickl emerges as Prime Minister, then there would be a great chance for the establishment of a nationalist geographic axis with Viktor Orban’s Hungary, from neighboring Slovakia to these two countries , Austria and Hungary, where also a populist tribune governs. It would be a “touch-and-go” with Meloni’s Italy.

“We have here something which could paralyze all the important common initiatives of the European Union, which would mean that the European Union, at that moment, could really be cut in two.”

Danny Leder

Austrian correspondent in Paris