Retirement from the Liberal Cabinet | Waiting for Poilievre

Among the Liberals, the case is settled: Pierre Poilievre will be crowned leader of the Conservative Party of Canada next Saturday. In any case, we are preparing for it, knowing that the entry on the scene of the impetuous MP will mark the return to Parliament in Ottawa. But if the shadow of Pierre Poilievre hovers over the retirement of the Cabinet which begins this Tuesday in Vancouver, the ministers have many other fish to fry… and summer mistakes to be forgiven.

Melanie Marquis
The Press

(Ottawa) The adversary on the agenda

It will be said of him that he has a hidden Trump agenda. That he has a fractured party to manage, including a wing that tends towards the extremes. That he has chemistry with the conspirators of this world. “To Mr. and Mrs. Everybody, he’s scary, in a way, Poilievre. He can be demonized quite effectively, ”says a government source who requested anonymity in order to speak frankly.

Unsurprisingly, among the Liberals, we did our oppo-research, as it is called in political jargon. We are ready to define the adversary before the Canadians do it themselves. But beware, said the same source: before focusing on the MP for Carleton, the government must focus on implementing its promises and delivering services to the population. ” This is the basis. People’s frustration, which is channeled through Poilievre, comes from the fact that it’s been toughthis summer: airports, passports, immigration…”, she warns, noting that it is all the same “safe, safe, safe” that the aspirant to the conservative leadership is on the agenda of retirement from Cabinet.

“A race against time”

Justin Trudeau’s Liberals will have a third opposition leader in front of them in about five years. But unlike the two previous ones, Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole, this one will have time to get comfortable, provided that the PLC-NDP pact holds until 2025, notes former Conservative strategist Yan Plante. “In the next 100 days, what’s going to be important is to take it seriously, not think it’s going to be easy, especially because in the next election, the Liberals will have three terms behind the tie, and voters’ desire for change is going to be higher than the last two times, ”said the man who was in Ottawa in the years when the waltz of ephemeral leaders was in the Liberal camp – Stéphane Dion, Michael Ignatieff – and not in the Conservatives. “It’s a race against time that starts as soon as Pierre Poilievre becomes chef,” says the former strategist, now vice-president at the consulting firm TACT.

economy, economy, economy

The Bank of Canada, which came out of its usual reserve in order to defend itself from having “printed money” to finance government spending, as accused by Pierre Poilievre, will announce another increase in the key rate Wednesday, day two of the Cabinet retreat. This means that “Justinflation” will come back to the table this week, as a prelude to the resumption of parliamentary work. “That’s going to be the challenge for Justin Trudeau: Pierre Poilievre will cut corners, as we saw with the Bank of Canada, and the Prime Minister will have to counterattack by refuting his arguments effectively, without getting stuck in the flowers of the carpet,” argues Geneviève Tellier, full professor at the School of Political Studies at the University of Ottawa. The economy must be the priority of priorities, slips a government source. “We have to talk about the economy — what an economy, I would say, almost! Economy, inflation, cost of living. That’s the biggest challenge, ”exclaims this source. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland could table a budget and economic update in the fall.

Will stay, won’t stay?

In the Liberal ranks, we are aware of the coast to climb. The Prime Minister’s popularity rating has plummeted in recent months; a survey conducted by the firm Léger on behalf of Postmedia last July estimated Justin Trudeau’s approval rate at only 39%. And nearly one in two people (49%) believed that he should give up his place before the next election. “The arrival of Pierre Poilievre, it could stimulate him,” says another government source who spoke on condition of anonymity. Does he want to leave Canada in the hands of a man who has these kinds of values? It’s very possible that the answer is no and that he wants to fight. And among the liberal troops, the rise of Joe Biden in the United States inspires. “It is certain that the repeal of Roe v. wade helped him. But when he got his big bill passed [sur la réduction de l’inflation]it worked… the checks have not even been sent yet, but people trust that their government delivers for them”, argues another person in government offices.

The Liberal Cabinet Retreat takes place September 6-8 in Vancouver.