Iranian nuclear talks resume Monday, November 29 in Vienna, Austria, after a five-month hiatus. The aim is to save the Iranian nuclear deal concluded in 2015. 3,200 kilometers from the Austrian capital, the Israelis are watching the negotiations like milk on fire.
Iran’s new government has changed the game
A first round of negotiations was held in the Austrian capital and completed last June. It brought together, as is the case today, the countries still members of the agreement, that is to say France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Russia, China and Iran. but also the United States, which left the agreement in 2018. Several rounds of negotiations had taken place between April and June: the Iranians and the Americans were not negotiating directly but through the other signatories, the Europeans in the lead. The discussions aimed, at the time, to establish a roadmap concerning on the one hand the lifting of the American sanctions reinstated in 2018, and on the other hand the return of Iran to the respect of its commitments, of which it is necessary. has been gradually freed since 2019. At the end of these negotiations, there were still some sticking points but some diplomats had expressed their hope of reaching an agreement. They stopped in June, the month during which the ultra-conservative Ebrahim Raïssi won the Iranian presidential election.
The arrival of the new Iranian government has been a game-changer and poses many questions, including whether negotiations will resume where they left off last June. We feel pessimism in recent days, and in particular certain negative signals concerning, for example, cooperation between Iran and the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, responsible for monitoring Tehran’s nuclear activities. Agency chief Rafael Grossi visited Iran last week hoping to make progress on several contentious issues, which hamper the agency’s verification capabilities. Despite constructive discussions, Rafael Grossi was unable to obtain an agreement on this subject with Iran. He recognizes that working with a new team makes a difference: “The positions are very different and I think it’s no surprise. The challenge for all of us is to understand each other. It’s a different government, they have the position they want, for me there is is no problem, I have to work with the government I have but we have to come to an agreement. “ This first day of discussions will therefore be important, it will be a signal and will set the tone for this new round of negotiations.
Israel follows negotiations closely
There is one country where the nuclear issue is followed very closely: it is Israel, very worried about what could happen in the coming months or the weeks to come … The Israeli government of Naftali Bennett must manage two challenges. The first: he is convinced that Iran wants access to the atomic bomb. The second: the Israelis and the Americans no longer agree on this question, unlike the Trump-Netanyahu years between 2016 and 2020. For four years the alignment between the two countries has been absolute on the Iranian question, but the two leaders would have been mistaken, believes Raz Zimmt, a former Israeli military intelligence officer now researcher specializing in Iran at the National Institute of Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv: “It was a strategic mistake. One of the consequences of Trump’s decision is that Iran has made significant progress on its agenda. Exiting the deal was not an American decision, it was certainly influenced. by the Israeli government. ” Today, a European diplomat who is following the case very closely tells us: “There is a growing lack of confidence by the Israeli government in the Biden administration. Israel is losing its lifelong ally on its number one security record.”
For the United States or France, the threshold, that is to say the moment when Tehran can technically access nuclear weapons, is reached when it can have the bomb in the next 12 to 24 months. For Israel, this threshold is the moment when no negotiations can no longer prevent this access to the bomb, whether in a month or in four years … “All options should be on the table including the military option, Raz Zimmt continues. Israel is trying to revive operational plans in Iran. The United States does not seem to want to resort to armed force unless Iran accesses nuclear weapons. For Israel, we can’t wait to be there because either we won’t know or it will be too late. ” But Israel does not have a US green light to do so or the necessary weapons to strike deep-buried nuclear facilities in Iran. By bulging their chests, the Israelis first want to influence indirectly in negotiations in which they are not participating. They think that in order to get something from the Iranians you must not be conciliatory with them, but threatening.