“Chavez lives,” the Venezuelan military still chants today in homage to Hugo Chavez who died in 2013. Despite everything, the opposition hopes that the army, the pillar of power in Venezuela for 25 years, will respect and enforce the outcome of Sunday’s presidential election.
Chavez’s designated successor, outgoing President Nicolas Maduro, is seeking a third six-year term, facing former ambassador Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who is the favorite in the polls.
Under his presidency, Mr. Maduro has only increased the influence of the military, already particularly pampered by his predecessor Hugo Chavez (1999-2013). The former head of state had notably given them key positions in the administration and the economy. And his constitutional reform of 1999 granted them the right to vote.
In addition to weapons, the armed forces now control mining, oil and food distribution companies, as well as customs and 12 of the 34 ministries, including important portfolios such as Oil, Defense, Interior and Trade.
“The Bolivarian National Armed Force supports me, it is Chavista, it is Bolivarian, it is revolutionary,” Mr. Maduro reaffirmed this week.
“I swear that this baton (of command) will never fall into the hands of an oligarch, a puppet, a traitor, I swear, never! Victory belongs to us,” he declared on July 5, on the occasion of Independence Day.
For his part, opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who replaced Maria Corina Machado, the opposition leader who was declared ineligible, called on the military in an open letter in early July to “respect and enforce the sovereign will” of the people during Sunday’s presidential election.
Venezuela’s armed forces numbered 343,000 men in 2020, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a size similar to that of Mexico’s military, which has four times the population.
“Privileges”
After decades of being equipped with American equipment, Venezuela changed sides under Chavez, purchasing supplies from Russia, particularly in Sukhoi aircraft and Kalashnikov rifles. In early July, two Russian military ships visited La Guaira, the port of Caracas.
The opposition and experts denounce corruption networks which have enriched many officers.
“Maduro does not have military leadership as commander in chief. He is winning over the armed forces with privileges, promotions and the creation of new positions,” says retired General Antonio Rivero, a critic of Chavismo in exile in the United States.
So far, the institution has been monolithic in its support for President Maduro, particularly as the United States, the European Union and most Latin American countries rejected his 2018 re-election as fraudulent.
“The high-ranking military has become incredibly powerful […] and some are involved in illicit businesses, or even run them,” said Rebecca Hanson, a professor at the University of Florida’s Center for Latin American Studies. “They have a lot to lose if Maduro falls.”
Nearly 50 senior officials, active or retired, are on the US sanctions list. The first were included in 2008 for their alleged links to the Colombian guerrillas. Later, others were accused of drug trafficking and, more recently, of human rights violations.
At the same time, human rights organisations are denouncing the detention for political reasons of dozens of soldiers (149 on 1er July) and the death in custody of three of them.
” Black Box “
Renata Segura of the International Crisis Group describes the armed forces as “Venezuela’s most overlooked black box.”
“It’s a very hermetic world,” but if the opposition wins, “it will be a determining actor, either to put pressure on the government to accept the result, or to go out and repress if there are protests,” she said.
Since 1999, the opposition has won only two national elections: in 2007, when a referendum to reform Venezuela’s constitution was rejected, and in 2015, when it won an absolute majority in parliament.
Mme Segura recalls an “important precedent” in 2015: the current Minister of Defense, Vladimir Padrino, had then recognized the result and praised “the behavior of the Venezuelan people” during a speech.