researcher Max-Valentin Robert has answered your questions

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4:57 p.m. : That was the last question, thank you all for this discussion!

4:56 p.m. : Good morning @mathix. Kiliçdaroglu, like Erdogan, criticizes the European Union for being too complacent with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a pro-Kurdish armed movement, considered a terrorist organization, among others. So I don’t imagine Kiliçdaroglu changing his position on Sweden’s NATO membership, compared to Erdogan, who accuses Stockholm of welcoming members of the PKK.

4:55 p.m. : Hello franceinfo, do we know the position of Kiliçdaroglu concerning Sweden’s membership in NATO, membership hitherto repressed by Erdogan.

5:06 p.m. : Good morning @Mia. The weight of the Kurds has already influenced the vote in the first round by providing massive support to Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, which was not however won given the complicated relationship between his party, the CHP, and the Kurdish electorate. The Kurds claim their cultural rights, in particular the use of their mother tongue. The most assertive factions go so far as to ask for a certain autonomy. But cultural concerns tend to take precedence.

4:47 p.m. : What is the weight of the Kurdish vote? Can they influence the outcome? What are their concerns?

4:42 p.m. : Good morning @Fanny. This will not only depend on the Turkish leaders, but also on those of the European Union. We can assume that Kemal Kiliçdaroglu’s tone with regard to the EU will be less marked by conflict. As Kiliçdaroglu wants a more democratic system to be restored, perhaps Turkey’s EU candidacy will be reconsidered more seriously. But beware, given the rise of right-wing populists in Europe, I don’t think the EU would suddenly go back to Turkey’s EU membership, even if Kiliçdaroglu were elected.

4:41 p.m. : If the opposition comes to power, will there be a chance that Turkey will be part of the European Union?

4:32 p.m. : Hello We must qualify. Part of Sinan Ogan’s electorate can vote for Kiliçdaroglu, in rejection of Erdogan and for the anti-immigration policy carried out by Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. He can try to seduce undecided voters, especially those who are most worried about seeing their social and economic situation deteriorate. Finally, he can try to mobilize the voters of his party, the CHP, who would have preferred a candidate other than him, by playing the pro-democracy card.

4:32 p.m. : Hello, where could the votes come from that would allow Mr Kiliçdaroglu to win this election knowing that those of Mr Ogan seem to be closer to Mr Erdogan?

4:25 p.m. : Good morning @[email protected]. Sinan Ogan and Erdogan thrive in the same type of provinces. At the same time, Sinan Ogan achieved poorly performing scores in strongholds loyal to the Republican People’s Party, of which Kemal Kiliçdaroglu is the leader. However, Sinan Ogan’s anti-immigration discourse brings him closer to Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, who advocates the expulsion of Syrian refugees living on Turkish soil in Syria.

4:24 p.m. : Do you think that the 5% of Sinan Ogan will be transferred to Erdogan?

4:15 p.m. : Good morning @Lara And . Erdogan thrives electorally on the attachment of a majority of the Turkish population to conservative cultural values. Moreover, by being at the center of a polarized political debate, he manages to remobilize his electoral base. Finally, the image of a strong man that he has built on the international scene appeals to a large portion of Turkish public opinion.

4:14 p.m. : Why is Erdogan still so popular with part of the population?

4:14 p.m. : To what can we link Erdogan’s popularity as a candidate despite the economic and social crisis that took place during his presidency?

4:10 p.m. : Good morning . I tend to think that Erdogan is on course to win the second round, because he starts with a large lead from the first round (49.5%).

4:10 p.m. : Hello, is Erdogan likely to win the elections?

4:10 p.m. : Good morning @Nils. I am quite skeptical about Kiliçdaroglu’s chances of victory in the second round, given the score Erdogan achieved in the first round and seen Kiliçdaroglu’s poor performance even in his strongholds. Arguably, his score is disappointing, not necessarily relative to the polls, but relative to the 2018 presidential election.

4:05 p.m. : Can we say that the score in the first round of the opposition candidate, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, was disappointing in view of the polls and does he have a rational chance of winning?

4:01 p.m. : Hello everyone ! My name is Max-Valentin Robert, I am a researcher in political science at the University of Nottingham, in the United Kingdom, and I work on Turkish political life, and more generally on elections and political parties.

4:01 p.m. : Hello everyone ! We therefore welcome the researcher Max-Valentin Robert for a question and answer session on the Turkish elections 🙂

4:03 p.m. : Analysis of the first round, challenges of the second round… Max-Valentin Robert, political science researcher, answers all your questions, along with our journalist Zoé Aucaigne.

2:11 p.m. : After the first round of the presidential election, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kiliçdaroglu find themselves neck and neck. To answer your questions, Max-Valentin Robert, researcher in political science at the University of Nottingham (United Kingdom), will be with us from 4 p.m.! Do not hesitate to send us your questions now.

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Before the second round of the presidential election, report with the voters of Sinan Ogan “not attracted by Erdogan’s program” and who refuse to vote for Kiliçdaroglu.

12:48 : After the first round of the presidential election held on Sunday, two men are still in the running in Turkey: outgoing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and opposition leader Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. To answer your questions, Max-Valentin Robert, researcher in political science at the University of Nottingham (United Kingdom), will be with us from 4 p.m.! Do not hesitate to send us your questions now.

10:20 a.m. : The campaign between the two rounds has started in Turkey and a key man remains to be convinced. Before the second round of the presidential election, the two finalists are indeed trying to get the votes of candidate Sinan Ogan. Report to its activists, who already seem to have chosen their side.


08:05 : But the two rivals are neck and neck for the second round, which makes Sinan Ogan the potential kingmaker. So what are his demands? Which candidate is he closest to on the political spectrum? Response elements.

08:05 : All eyes are now on him. Since the first round of the presidential election in Turkey, Sinan Ogan is no longer in the race. The one who gathered 5.3% of the votes was no match for the outgoing president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the leader of the opposition, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu.

Sinan Ogan, who came third in the Turkish presidential election, on May 14, 2023 in Ankara.  (HAKAN NURAL / ANADOLU AGENCY / AFP)


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