All the polls make it clear: Donald Trump is the favorite to win the Republican nomination for the party’s candidacy for the presidency of the United States in 2024. Despite his many legal setbacks, the list of which is likely to grow, and despite the electoral defeats suffered in the last three elections, it is clear that Trump has managed to increase his support markedly over the past few weeks.
That being said, it is premature to conclude that the chips are down. In the various polls, we note that a strong majority among Republicans would be ready to consider an alternative to the former president. In recent weeks, some candidates have been announced and several other potential candidates are under consideration.
Given Trump’s current lead and the dedicated militancy of his supporters (the MAGA wing, for “Make America Great Again”), as well as party rules that will mandate plurality voting for victory rather than the majority during the 2024 primaries, we understand that Trump has every advantage in seeing a large number of candidates present themselves on the starting line. Currently, seven candidates are in the running.
Two trademark applications
Just recently, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis officially declared their intentions to run for president in 2024.
PHOTO ROBERT F. BUKATY, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Tim Scott, South Carolina senator and candidate for the Republican nomination
The case of Tim Scott is particularly interesting because he is the only black candidate in the race, and because he offers ideas very much based on his conservative convictions. Its goal is to campaign content that directly addresses political issues, and thus provoke a debate of ideas rather than letting the struggle of personalities, an arena dear to Trump, dominate the debate.
Some describe him as the Obama of the Republicans.
Highly respected and loved by his congressional colleagues, regardless of partisan affiliation, Scott is seen as a strong contender despite the scant support he currently has in the polls.
In terms of style, this is definitely a candidate the opposite of Trump!
His personal story is moving. Coming from a poor family, raised only by his mother, and having suffered difficulties in his youth, Scott was elected to the House of Representatives and eventually reached the Senate. He is certainly a candidate who could influence the nature of the race. Already some strategists see him as the ideal choice for the vice-presidency.
The candidacy of Governor DeSantis will be particularly to be followed. Elected in 2018 as governor of Florida by a narrow margin of 1%, he was re-elected in 2022 with a much more comfortable margin, this time of 19%. At the start of 2023, several major donors and Republican activists saw him as Trump’s successor.
PHOTO CHARLIE NEIBERGALL, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida and candidate for the Republican nomination
Since then, the outlook has become complicated for DeSantis. Numerous missteps, including awkward remarks about the war in Ukraine, in which he described the conflict as a simple “territorial dispute”, damage his candidacy. Note also the strange crusade he leads against the Disney empire, especially about a bill affecting education. This resentment towards one of the most popular bases of contemporary American culture positions it far from the social consensus. Then, it should be noted that the launch of his campaign on Twitter with Elon Musk was a spectacular technical and media failure. In short, there is no shortage of criticism for Governor DeSantis.
Certainly, DeSantis has the support and the financial means to make the race, but he must readjust his substantive approach by attacking Trump more directly. This is what he has been doing for a few days and it could transform the nature of the race. He remains a formidable adversary and Trump considers him his main rival.
The Biden-McCarthy deal
Moreover, the soap opera on the debt ceiling seems to be coming to an end with the agreement reached between President Biden and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy. It’s a compromise that will force a bipartisan outcome. Biden and McCarthy will therefore have to rally the troops to arrive at an outcome that will avoid financial catastrophe. Of course, there are malcontents in both political formations, but it is more than likely that the negative repercussions will be felt more in the Republican camp.
Trump was not a factor or an influencer in this process. On the contrary, he suggests that the default on the debt had to be provoked to force Biden to make the necessary concessions to the position of the Republicans. In short, this will certainly contribute to the dissension among the Republicans.
In any case, it is fair to predict that this agreement between the Republican leadership and the Democratic president, combined with the two major candidates in the Republican camp, will have a significant impact on the race.
For now, Trump remains the leader, but it is still far too early to conclude that he will be the winner.