Cyber security and space are emerging risks to the global economy, risks that add to existing challenges posed by climate change and the coronavirus pandemic, the World Economic Forum said in a report on Tuesday.
The global risk report is typically released ahead of the annual winter gathering of CEOs and world leaders in the Swiss ski resort of Davos, but the event has been postponed for a second year in a row due to COVID -19. The World Economic Forum is still planning virtual sessions next week.
Here’s an overview of the report, which is based on a survey of around 1,000 experts and executives.
Global perspectives. As 2022 begins, the pandemic and its economic and societal impact still pose a “critical threat” to the world, according to the report. Large differences in vaccine access between rich and poor countries mean their economies are recovering at uneven rates, which could deepen social divisions and exacerbate geopolitical tensions.
By 2024, the global economy is expected to be 2.3% smaller than it would have been without the pandemic. But this data masks the different growth rates between developing countries, whose economies are expected to be 5.5% lower than they were before the pandemic, and rich countries, which are expected to see their economies increase by 0, 9%.
Digital dangers. The pandemic has forced a huge change, forcing many people to work or take classes from home and leading to an explosion in the number of online platforms and devices to facilitate the transformation, dramatically increasing the risks. of security.
“We’re now at the point where cyber threats are growing faster than our ability to prevent and manage them effectively,” said Carolina Klint, chief risk officer at Marsh, whose parent company, Marsh McLennan, said. co-authored the report with Zurich Insurance Group and Groupe SK.
Cyber attacks are becoming more aggressive and prevalent as criminals use harsher tactics to prey on more vulnerable targets, according to the report. Malware and ransomware attacks have exploded, while the rise of cryptocurrency makes it easy for online criminals to hide the payments they have collected.
Space race. Space is the last frontier – for risk. The falling costs of technology have led to a new space race between business and government. Meanwhile, a multitude of countries are stepping up their space programs in search of geopolitical and military power or scientific and commercial gains.
But all these programs run the risk of friction in orbit. “The increased exploitation of these orbits carries the risk of congestion, increased debris and the possibility of collisions in an area with few governance structures to mitigate new threats. “
Climate crisis. The environment remains the biggest long-term concern. The health of the planet over the next decade is the overriding concern, according to survey respondents, who cited the inability to act on climate change, extreme weather and biodiversity loss as the main concerns. three main risks.
The report notes that countries are taking different approaches, with some moving faster than others to adopt a carbon neutral model. Both approaches have drawbacks. While a slow move could radicalize more people who think the government is not acting urgently, a quicker move away from carbon-intensive industries could cause economic turmoil and put millions of people out of work. “The adoption of hasty environmental policies could also have unintended consequences for nature,” notes the report. There are still many unknown risks associated with the deployment of untested biotechnology and geoengineering technologies. “