The sprint is engaged. Thirty-five days before the first round of the presidential election, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s strategy is clear: reach out to voters on the entire left in the hope of rallying them behind him. And thus qualify for the second round.
In Lyon, this weekend, the candidate of La France insoumise (LFI) multiplied the signals to try to convince left-wing voters to join him. A tribute to Jean Jaurès, Saturday in Vaise, in this former industrial district of Lyon, where the socialist leader had delivered his last speech on peace before his assassination in 1914. And a speech, Sunday, in front of nearly 10,000 sympathizers gathered in Croix-Rousse, the former working-class district of Lyon’s silk workers.
The choice of “the working hill” is not insignificant and did not escape Michel and Catherine, two retirees from Isère who voted socialist until now. “La Croix-Rousse and Jean Jaurès, that speaks to us a lot as left-wing voters, but if we chose to vote for him, it is above all because he is in the best position to win”, they assure, resuming in chorus “the song of the canuts” intoned by the candidate.
The former socialist minister of Lionel Jospin indeed continues to race ahead in the polls on the left. A recent study Ipsos-Sopra Steria for Cevipof and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation even places him for the first time in fourth position (12%), just ahead of Valérie Pécresse, the Republican candidate (11.5%) and only one point behind Eric Zemmour, the former far-right polemicist (13%).
“There is a sounding dynamic for him. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has definitely left the 9 to 10% zone. It is therefore not forbidden to think, in a context quite comparable to that of 2017 and with a left-wing electorate who dreads being humiliated again, may he still progress.”
Bruno Cautrès, political scientist, member of Cevipofat franceinfo
Another asset for Jean-Luc Mélenchon on his pursuers on the left: the recent support of the Popular Primary. This citizens’ initiative which had enabled Christiane Taubira to legitimize her candidacy at the end of January, before she finally threw in the towel, for lack of sufficient sponsorship, decided to line up behind “The People’s Union, the best political vehicle to win our ideas in the presidential election”. An astonishing choice when Jean-Luc Mélenchon harshly criticized and rejected this initiative, comparing its organizers to “jokes who want to harm him”. For Yves, teaching assistant present at the meeting, “this militant force will undoubtedly allow him to climb in the polls and convince a few more left-wing voters to join him”.
But to attract a maximum of left-wing voters into his nets, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is proposing the establishment of a Sixth Republic, must further expand his electorate. “He voted for the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 and took part in a government that privatized a lot. He must therefore remember that he comes from the PS and that he stops hitting him. If he does not does not care about other left-wing candidates and continues his campaign, socialist or ecological voters will naturally turn to him”believes Ahcene, a teacher in a school in the Lyon suburbs, who wanted to make the trip this Sunday.
As if he had been heard by this sympathizer, Jean-Luc Mélenchon rightly promised in his speech in Lyon to “Get out of nuclear power and make 100% renewable energy”. A nod to the voters of Yannick Jadot. Before aiming, a few minutes later, those of Anne Hidalgo.
“Mr. Macron says he wants to give priority to school. We saw what happened with the hospital! For my part, I will repeal Parcoursup.”
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, presidential candidateat a meeting in Lyon
But putting on the unifying costume of the whole left remains a huge challenge for the one who will complete his third presidential campaign in five weeks. If the tribune excels on television sets and is able to raise crowds in meetings, the candidate remains divisive. His ambiguous positions on Vladimir Putin before the Russian invasion of Ukraine leave traces.
“Even though the dynamic on the left is unmistakably with him, there is a real feeling of rejection of his person because of his radical positions.analyzes Emmanuel Rivière, international director for political studies at the Kantar Public Institute. The episode of the search of the headquarters of his party was not digested by all French people as well.
On the war in Ukraine, the candidate of La France insoumise wanted to clarify his positions this Sunday in Lyon. “I said no to the Gulf War, for the same reasons, non-aligned as I am, I don’t want Mr. Putin’s war or his world order.” He again proposed, in this same speech, that France leave NATO.
Political rivalries with the Communists (PCF) and the maintenance of their candidate, Fabien Roussel, also risk depriving the rebellious of the second round, on April 10. Credited with 4% of voting intentions, according to the latest polls, Fabien Roussel could have been a major ally for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, as in 2017, when the PCF had not sent a presidential candidate. “Fabien Roussel holds his Grail and will not withdraw, because he could finally clear the honor of his party against the PS by being the first communist candidate to arrive in front of the socialist, advances political scientist Bruno Cautrès. Jean-Luc Mélenchon tried to negotiate with him before he took off in the polls. But now it is too late.”
To carry the torch of the left and hope to gather a maximum of voters, Jean-Luc Mélenchon will therefore have to continue his seduction operation until the first round. Speaking to as many people as possible and targeting abstentionists above all are also part of his political tactics. “In 2017, he failed to ‘mitterrandiser’ after his very good score, observes Bruno Cautrès. If he wants to unite, he must become a leader of synthesis, as François Mitterrand was. He has five weeks left to do so.