The very controversial text of the government must know its epilogue Thursday with the final vote of the Parliament. At the moment the games are open.
The text on pension reform is entering the final sprint. Wednesday, March 15, from 9 a.m., the Joint Joint Committee (CMP), a body which brings together seven deputies and seven senators, must reach an agreement on the government’s project. Barring a huge surprise, it should succeed and send its text to Parliament. The Senate will be seized of it first, Thursday morning, during a ballot which should confirm the favorable vote of last weekend.
The fate of the reform will be decided Thursday afternoon in the National Assembly. Will pass or not pass? “This is the one-euro question of the moment”loose an LR parliamentarian. “I admit I don’t know, it could be complicated”, confides a framework of the majority. Because the presidential camp does not have an absolute majority in the Assembly and their only allies on this text, Les Républicains, “are unreliable between what they say and what they do”said a Renaissance deputy.
Will the executive take the risk of submitting its text to the vote of the deputies, at the risk of seeing it be challenged? Or will he take the lead by activating Article 49.3 of the Constitution, despite the symbol that such a decision would represent? Depending on the scenario, the epilogue of the pension reform soap opera can lead to very different political consequences for the majority.
1 The reform is rejected by the deputies
This is the worst case scenario for the government. The National Assembly does not adopt the compromise of the joint committee. The pension reform was then rejected. “This scenario of the rejection of the text seems unlikely to meexplains Mathieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos. If the government goes to the vote, it is because it is sure of itself.” In the majority also, we cannot believe for a single second in this hypothesis. “It would be a disaster but it is not possible”reassures a Renaissance parliamentarian.
“I think we still manage to count to know if we have a majority or not. If we get caught on it, that’s a problem.”
A Renaissance parliamentarianat franceinfo
In theory, a rejection of the text would not necessarily mean the end of the examination of the text in Parliament, since the government has the possibility of leaving for a turn for a new shuttle between the two assemblies. “But it will be very complicated from the point of view of public opinion, and then there is an obvious desire for the executive to move on to something else, in particular to more consensual subjects”analyzes Mathieu Gallard.
However, abandoning the pension reform is also not an option for Emmanuel Macron, who has made it one of the markers of his five-year term. Its ability to reform the country would be heavily affected. The president could then be tempted by dissolution, in the hazardous hope of winning an absolute majority. On the side of the opposition, this rejection would on the contrary be experienced as a huge victory. If this happens, the socialist Jérôme Guedj thus promises to leave “champagne”. “The government takes the risk and he is beaten. It would be a snub for Borne and Macron”, supports the deputy. We would then enter “an uncertain time” for the executive.
2 The Assembly adopts the text
This is the ideal scenario for the government. The National Assembly adopts the text of the pensions, without having to resort to 49.3, this article of the Constitution which allows it to pass a bill without a vote. Since Tuesday, the macronists have multiplied the declarations suggesting that there is a majority in the Assembly on this subject. “We are convinced that this text has a majority, because it meets the expectations of both the presidential majority and others”declared the Minister of Labor, Olivier Dussopt, on CNews, Tuesday, March 14. “In this Assembly, a majority exists”also supported Elisabeth Borne during the session of questions to the government.
Some majority parliamentarians believe in it, like Marc Ferracci, a close friend of Emmanuel Macron. “We will vote for it and we will win because this reform is essential for the country and those who hesitate will vote for it in the end for this reason”he assures. “I’m confident we’ll get there”abounds another parliamentarian of the majority, who predicts an adoption with a difference of ten votes. “The text will be improved in CMP, it will convince the last undecided. “
If the reform passes without 49.3, it will be “certainly perceived as a victory for the government in the media but it will remain symbolic”warns Mathieu Gallard.
“If it passes, it will be by a small majority and that will not prevent the fact that public opinion will continue to be opposed to it. This can act as a divorce between public opinion and political leaders.”
Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at the Ipsos instituteat franceinfo
If this scenario were to come true, the majority promises to lay low. “We will enter another phase. The second five-year term can finally really begin”promises a macronist. “We need another story, a new breath and who says new breath says new government…” he adds. On the contrary, the opposition precisely expects the government “braggart”. “IThere will be questions about the continuation of the movement, it can fracture the social movement”, acknowledges Jérôme Guedj. The socialist nevertheless promises that the opponents will continue “the battle”.
More immediately, a positive vote at the Palais-Bourbon would lead “to a political clarification”according to political scientist Bruno Cautrès: “If the Republicans were to vote for the pension reform, observers will draw conclusions. In particular the fact that the LR deputies now have their feet in the presidential majority.”
3 The government releases 49.3
“It’s the second worst-case scenario”, says Bruno Cautrès. The government does not want to take any risk and draws 49.3 to have its pension reform adopted without a vote. “We would be, again, in the theme of the denial of democracy with a political legitimacy which would be considerably attenuated”analyzes the political scientist. “We will denounce the failure and the feverishness of the government”promises the socialist Jérôme Guedj.
In the majority, some claim that “if you’re too short, don’t take any risks and draw the 49.3”. The option is seriously on the table, even if it is officially challenged by the executive. “I’m rather pessimistic that we’ll get there without 49.3”says a macronist. “The government is doing case by case to convince undecided MPs, but it’s too late and too risky”reports to France Télévisions a Renaissance deputy.
“We must now announce 49.3, otherwise we will have to take the oars out on Thursday to justify this decision.”
A Renaissance MPat France Televisions
But others, in the majority, fear the political consequences of triggering a 49.3 on such a text. “It would be counterproductiveargues a Renaissance deputy. Given the political climate on this subject, a 49.3 would not be understood, unlike classic budgets, even if it is constitutional.”
In the event of a forced passage, the presidential camp would also have to face “a cross-partisan motion of censure”. Could the government fall? The probability is very low, even if a few LR deputies mix their voices in it. “I do not believe itdelivers a macronist. There are fewer people at LR who want to bring down the government than people who want to embarrass them.”