With each passing day, the Ukrainian army is gaining strength thanks to the military equipment provided by the West. Fighter jets from Poland could soon be delivered to the Ukrainians, a sign that the tide would begin to turn on the battlefield despite the growing humanitarian crisis.
Poland surprised US officials on Tuesday by saying it was “ready” to provide around 30 Mig-29 planes to the Ukrainian army free of charge via US military bases.
“The authorities of the Republic of Poland […] are ready to move all of its Mig-29 aircraft to the Ramstein base “in Germany” without delay and free of charge and make them available to the United States government,” the Polish Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday. .
Shortly after, the spokesman for the United States Department of Defense tempered this offer, saying he was “surprised” by this statement. “We do not believe Poland’s proposal is viable,” John Kirby said in a statement, since such an organization to assist Ukraine militarily in the face of the Russian invasion “raises serious concerns for the whole of NATO”.
On Sunday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States was “actively working” on a deal with Poland to send fighter jets to Ukraine.
It is a question here of entrusting the steering wheel to the Ukrainians themselves without being accused of taking part directly in the conflict, observes Pierre Jolicoeur, associate vice-rector for research at the Royal Military College of Canada. Delivering weapons to Ukrainian soldiers, even for free, can be justified as a “mere commercial operation”. Moreover, the Ukrainian soldiers have a good command of these planes designed by the Soviet Union.
Thousands of lethal weapons are also making their way to Ukraine or are already there. NATO forces daily provide anti-tank rocket launchers, anti-aircraft missiles and assault rifles to Ukrainian troops. “It is in billions of dollars that it is counted. And we have not announced them all in the public square, ”notes Mr. Jolicoeur.
Added to this are the thousands of foreign soldiers who enlist in the Ukrainian forces voluntarily and personally. Nearly 20,000 volunteers have already joined the banner of the “International Defense Legion”, according to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry. “We saw that in other theaters of war. Sometimes it makes the difference, assures Pierre Jolicoeur. We saw it with the Islamic State group, when [combattants] Westerners, not necessarily of Arab origin, have controlled large swathes of Syrian and Iraqi territory for several years. »
The tide may be starting to turn, but “the Russian forces are still dominant”, nuances this specialist in the armed forces.
losses and gains
Despite a hard-to-establish calculation, almost 1,000 Russian military vehicles have certainly been destroyed, damaged or captured so far, according to the visually documented compilation of the Oryx monitoring group.
A senior Pentagon official estimated on Tuesday that “2,000 to 4,000” Russian soldiers had died since the start of the invasion, adding that this estimate should be taken with caution. The only assessment of the Russian Ministry of Defense had reported last week of 498 Russian soldiers killed.
The losses on the side of the Ukrainian army are impossible to estimate with certainty, only the Russians have so far advanced the figure of 2,870 soldiers who fell on the battlefield.
This toll will continue to grow, especially in the capital. A US Department of Defense official reported anonymously to the press that a third column of tanks is heading towards Kiev, “one of the main objectives of the Russian army”.
A first convoy of tanks, supply trucks and other military vehicles has been blocked for several days some 20 km north of the capital, while a second line of attack is stationed near Chernihiv, 150 km from Kyiv.
This analysis is corroborated by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank. “Russian forces are concentrating east, northwest and west of Kiev for an assault within 24 to 96 hours, according to a news bulletin released Monday afternoon. […] If Russian troops are able to resupply, reorganize and plan simultaneous, coordinated and deliberate operations on different axes around and in the capital, they could meet with more success than previous attempts. For the rest, the front lines have changed little over the past 24 hours.
A truce on Wednesday
The Russian army announced a new truce for the evacuation of civilians in Ukraine on Wednesday, after the implementation the day before of humanitarian corridors.
“Russia announces a ceasefire regime from March 9, 10:00 a.m. Moscow time, and is ready to set up the humanitarian corridors”, announced the cell responsible for these issues within the Russian government. , quoted by the TASS agency.
According to Moscow, this proposal will be transmitted to the Ukrainian authorities, who must confirm the location of the humanitarian corridors and from what time they will be operational.
The first evacuation corridors for civilians were set up on Tuesday morning, particularly in Sumy in the northeast, from where two convoys left during the day. Evacuations also continued in the Kyiv region. In other towns, such as Boutcha in the north or Mariupol in the south, civilians remained stranded.
The bar of two million refugees was exceeded on Tuesday, only 12 days after the start of the invasion, according to the latest UN counts.
With Agence France-Presse