On Sunday, a far-right party won the elections in a state in Germany for the first time. This event is part of a broader movement of a rise in the extremes in the country. Analysis with two experts.
What is this far-right party?
The Alternative for Germany (in German: Alternative for Germanyor AfD) is a far-right party that is firmly anti-immigration, anti-Islam, anti-European Union and climate denier.
Its leader in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, has made particularly controversial statements and has advocated for “a major programme of deporting illegal immigrants” by plane. He has been accused of neo-Nazi tendencies by his opponents. He was also convicted for using a Nazi slogan at political events, “Everything for Germany”; but he has since appealed, claiming not to have been aware of its connotation.
Read the article “X-ray: A radical within the German far right”
Why is it growing in popularity?
In general, the AfD’s populist rhetoric is received more favourably in former GDR regions such as Thuringia and Saxony – which are poorer and have higher unemployment rates than in western Germany.
“The situation is a bit similar to that of France, with the yellow vest movement. These regions do not feel listened to, they do not feel represented,” explains James Skidmore, director of the Centre for German Studies at the University of Waterloo.
PHOTO COURTESY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO
James Skidmore, Director of the Centre for German Studies at the University of Waterloo
Previously, people voted for the AfD as a sign of protest. But increasingly, we see that they are now voting out of conviction.
James Skidmore, director of the Centre for German Studies at the University of Waterloo
The August 23 stabbing attack in Solingen, in the west of the country, in which a suspected Syrian extremist is accused of killing three people, has also helped to bring the issue of immigration back to the forefront of German politics.
The party’s success is part of a general trend in Germany of the rise of the extremes, with the AfD having won several victories in recent years – including its best score in the European elections last June.
“It is therefore not surprising that this party is performing well in these regional elections,” notes Dietlind Stolle, professor of political science at McGill University.
Will he succeed in forming a coalition?
Although the AfD came first in Thuringia, it won just over 33 percent of the vote. “So it doesn’t have enough seats to form a government on its own,” says Dietlind Stolle. “And it can’t really implement any of its policies if it doesn’t form a government.”
However, due to his nationalist and anti-democratic character, all other parties have so far declared that they will not form a coalition with him. But this “cordon sanitaire” could end up withering away.
“Some members of the Conservative Party have said that they might eventually consider a coalition. So that red line could end up being crossed,” Skidmore said.
What will the consequences be for Thuringia?
In Thuringia, Björn Höcke wants to force the federal government to change its asylum policy, curb radicalisation by giving more power to the state secret police and cut all financial support and policies that promote democracy, diversity and the fight against right-wing extremism. He also wants to stop all action against climate change and end funding for public broadcasting.
But he campaigned mainly on issues that are in federal hands, such as controlling and reducing immigration, as well as questioning the supply of arms to Ukraine. These measures cannot therefore be directly implemented by the party, even if it manages to form a government in Thuringia.
“But these questions were on the minds of people who voted for the AfD,” says Dietlind Stolle. “So they could influence political discourse in the near future, because all the other parties have to think about how to win back their voters.”
And at the national level?
Saxony and Thuringia account for about 7% of Germany’s population. After its historic success in these two states, including its victory in Thuringia, does the AfD have a chance of winning the 2025 national elections?
“The AfD is too polarized to win at the federal level,” says Dietlind Stolle. She also points out that many people took to the streets shortly before the election to protest against the rise of the extremes.
“But national dissatisfaction with the current government in Germany will certainly be reflected in the results of the next elections,” she adds.
A victory in Thuringia by a far-right party also recalls the rise of fascism in Germany a century ago. The Nazi party first passed the 10 percent mark in Thuringia in the 1929 state elections. Then it went on to win the 1933 federal elections. “People are very afraid of history repeating itself,” Skidmore says.
With Jean-Christophe Laurence, The Pressand the Associated Press