Red meat prices are reaching records in the United States, boosted by consumption which is not weakening, but above all by the gradual reduction in the cattle herd, mainly due to drought.
Mary Skinner must eat meat. His doctor prescribed it for him. “I have an extreme need for protein,” explains the sixty-year-old outside the Grand Central market in New York.
“Before, I could buy steaks, but now it’s more and more ground meat. Or the simmering “palette,” she says, referring to one of the less expensive pieces.
While inflation slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in September, in the United States it still reached 9.7% for retail steak. In three years, the star piece of red meat has jumped 27%.
Still in Grand Central, a thirty-year-old from Connecticut explains that he subscribed to the ButcherBox home delivery service to reduce his bill.
“I receive about six pieces, for US$150 or US$160, every two or three weeks,” explains this entrepreneur who did not want to give his name. “It’s definitely increased. »
“It got to the point where I started buying mainly long-cooking meat, which is more affordable and will last me longer,” he adds.
The beef surge exceeds, in intensity, the inflationary surge that has been sweeping through the entire American economy for two years.
The drought involved
The United States, often associated with the image of ranches and giant herds, is short of beef. “The beef cattle herd is at its lowest level since the 1960s,” says Scott Brown, a professor at the University of Missouri.
In five years, the population has declined by nearly 10%, according to figures from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
“The first reason is the drought”, which has hit livestock regions, in particular the American Great Plains, “for several years”, explains Scott Brown, who dates the beginning of the phenomenon to the fall of 2020.
The lack of rainfall has reduced pastures and caused the price of fodder to jump.
Constrained, breeders have massively reduced the size of their herds. In 2022, “slaughterings have reached their highest level since the early 1980s,” underlines Ross Baldwin, of the agricultural consultancy AgMarket. Net.
The contraction in the herd was amplified by excess mortality, with hundreds of cattle succumbing to a brutal heat wave in August, coupled with above-average humidity.
Breeders have partially compensated thanks to the evolution of their animals, which produce more meat than ten years ago and more animals at calving, according to Scott Brown.
At the same time, the demand for red meat has increased.
Reduced supply and strong demand
In 2022, Americans ate, on average, 26.8 kg of beef (500 g per week), up from 2021 (+0.3%). Since 2015, growth has reached nearly 10%, according to the USDA.
Caught between reduced supply and vigorous demand, the wholesale price of livestock has more than doubled since March 2020 (+133%).
Attracted by record prices, many breeders are parting with their heifers earlier, which prevents the herd from growing, describes Ross Baldwin, who does not see the situation changing for a year.
“And it will take another three years for the population to really start to increase,” he said.
In the meantime, “keep the heifers for breeding […] would reduce meat production in the short term and further increase prices,” warns David Anderson, professor at Texas A&M University.
Another challenge is finding sufficient pastures to accommodate a reconstituted herd.
“The southeast has had drought, but not as much as the rest of the country,” notes Scott Brown about this region sparsely populated with cattle. “Could the meat beasts be taken there?” It could happen. »
The USDA anticipates a further deceleration in beef production in 2024.
From then on, announces Ross Baldwin, “retail prices will remain firm and, ultimately, this will force consumers to ask themselves the question of continuing to pay so high”.
According to the analyst, the market could thus adjust thanks to a slowdown in demand, even if it shows, for the moment, no sign of weakening.