The recidivism rate for sex offenders has plunged by 70% in Canada since the 1940s, shows a meta-analysis carried out by researchers from Quebec and British Columbia.
“There have never really been any studies that have reported on the evolution of the risk of recidivism for sex offenders,” said the first author of the study, Professor Patrick Lussier of the Faculty of Social Sciences of Laval University. We’ve always assumed that the risk was relatively high, that the risk was relatively stable, for all sex offenders. »
The 185 studies on the issue reviewed by the researchers looked at 226 groups of sex offenders between 1940 and 2019, for a total of about 56,000 subjects.
They found that during this period the weighted average sexual recidivism rate was 23%, whereas today it is around 7%, a drop of almost 70%.
“This fall does not date from yesterday, and it was done essentially without our knowledge, said Mr. Lussier. There are policies that have been added to reassure the population, to give tools to (justice), also to correctional services, to manage the risk assumed by sex offenders. But during that time, there were changes taking place. »
The decline has been particularly large in Canada since the 1970s and 1980s. Multiple factors are likely responsible, he said, including a better understanding of delinquency and the factors associated with recidivism.
He also mentions closer collaboration between the correctional and university communities, as well as better training of the interveners, which makes it possible to better meet the needs of this clientele and to work together to prevent recidivism, he added. .
The implementation of the Canadian sex offender registry in 2004, however, probably had nothing to do with it, added Mr. Lussier, since the decline began more than 20 years ago.
In comparison, the much more repressive approach adopted in the United States, which goes so far as to put the personal information of offenders online, has led to a decline of about 40% in the risk of recidivism.
“Canada has chosen not to go there, to rely on institutions, on the improvement of practices, on risk assessment, on risk management, on treatment problems for sex offenders, underlined Mr Lussier. And it seems obvious, with the results we have observed, that it has paid off. »
“And then that, it must be remembered,” he said.
The important thing now, Mr. Lussier added, will be to communicate this data to the government and the general public, since there are “obviously quite significant barriers for people who have a history of sex crimes, where we assume that these people will inevitably commit a repeat offence”.
The researchers will now try to determine if the risk of recidivism has dropped for all types of sexual offending, or if the improvements are greater (or more modest) in some cases.
The conclusions of this study carried out by researchers from Laval University, the University of Montreal and Simon Fraser University have been published by the scientific journal Criminology and Public Policy.