In chess or Go, one can predict in advance, imagine his moves to come, Erdogan is, with each nervousness, obliged to move differently, like a Tavla player.
On October 18, the ambassadors of the United States, Canada, France, Finland, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden stationed in Ankara mobilized in support of the patron and businessman Osman Kavala . Osman Kavala has been imprisoned for four years without trial. Thus the 10 ambassadors demanded a “fair and rapid settlement” of this affair.
It did not take more for the Emir of the Bosphorus to launch a new crisis against his “stupid Westerners” who support one of his mortal enemies, Osman Kavala, evil incarnate for Erdoğan. An “indecent” initiative and “a huge insult”, according to the Turkish head of state.
As our guest Ahmet Insel, Turkish writer, journalist and political scientist explained to us, Osman Kavala, born in 1957, is a rich heir, who after studying economics and social sciences at Robert College in Istanbul and at the Manchester University takes over family affairs. Then, thanks to “his” connections, he embarked on humanitarian projects in favor of the most needy, and ignored, even persecuted communities, such as the Armenians, the Kurds or the Alevis.
Founder of a publishing company, Iletisim, “very frowned upon” by the Pasha of Ankara, since “people” unsavory in the eyes of the authorities there publish books considered as subversive by the autocrat Erdoğan. Note that those who can still edit at Iletisim are not yet exiled or imprisoned, so they must be very few.
In 2002, Osman Kavala created Anadolu Kültür, an association whose aim is to promote the necessary protection of Turkish heritage, in order to raise awareness that Turkey is not only an Islamic country but that other civilizations and religions are involved. There are Armenians, Greeks, Kurds, Alevi, Christians, Jews, among others. But “enough is too much” for President Erdoğan who arrested Osman Kavala on October 18, 2017, at Istanbul Atatürk airport, and placed in police custody, with two charges falling on the philanthropist Kavala .
He is first of all accused of organizing and participating in the protest movements of Gezi, in June 2013, the Gezi park near Taxim Square in Istanbul, which had experienced anti-Erdoğan demonstrations and the power of his henchmen. Then, Osman Kavala is accused of being involved in the coup attempt of July 2016. Only the first charge is maintained, but Osman Kavala acquitted in February 2020, the day of his release from prison, the prosecutor General of Istanbul, had him arrested and reincarcerated, and this time his acquittal was quashed in the court of appeal, the charge of participation in an attempted coup was reinstated, and a third charge was added, espionage for the benefit of foreign power, because Osman Kavala is very close to the Open Society Foundation of George Soros.
So, as much to say that Osman Kavala haunts the days and the nights of Erdoğan, especially since the Turkish courts, under the orders of the Sultan, still have as much difficulty to prove the guilt of Osman Kavala, even if the latter is still in prison. This is how he received the support of 18 ambassadors on October 18.
What could be simpler for the Turkish president to evoke then the Vienna Convention, on diplomatic relations of 1961, which frames diplomatic relations including the prohibition of interference in the internal affairs of a state. Here, Erdoğan had a nice game playing on this Vienna Convention since the signatory ambassadors waived it, and thus the Turkish president asked for their departure on Saturday 23 October, that is to say a week exactly before the G20 in Rome. But if the expulsion of an ambassador is not easy, 10 ambassadors is a lot.
So on Monday, October 25, Erdoğan, in his great clemency renounced expulsions, seeing that he was very close to the international crisis, including that of the United States, the opportunity for Erdogan to announce that he hoped to meet US President Joe Biden, i.e. in Rome on October 30, or from Sunday October 31, in Glasgow for the COP 26.
It is true that the Turkish president is far from resembling the father of modern diplomacy, and Erdoğan is not Lavrov either. Because the Sultan of Ankara has to face a serious economic crisis, an inflation rate close to 20% and a Turkish lira which continues to fall, 25% since the beginning of the year against the dollar. Erdogan knows full well that the purchasing power of Turkish households is at its lowest, inflation is rampant, discontent is mounting against him, the opposition is beginning to experience a revival, and the rare “free” opinion polls are against it. him, not to mention the next elections of 2023 which, for the time being, are not favorable to him.
Another ass kick to Erdoğan’s address, Turkey has been placed under surveillance by the international body Gafi, the Financial Action Task Force. In question, the failings of Turkey in the fight against money laundering and the financing of terrorism. All this has of course consequences for foreign investments which are already at their lowest in Turkey, 5.7 billion dollars were invested in 2020, against 19 billion dollars in 2007. All that remains for Erdogan is the patriotic fiber, feeling he uses when he feels the ground slipping from under his feet. So he sees as many enemies on the outside as on the inside.
As for Osman Kavala, the philanthropist remains in prison at least until November 26. On that date, he will appear again before the Turkish courts. And if the experts are reassured that the Turkish president did not expel the 10 ambassadors, they suppose that these expulsions would have caused an international diplomatic crisis.
And yet, this question still gives rise to some doubt. Indeed, in December 2019, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) had ordered the Turkish government to release Osman Kavala, considering that his arrest was unfounded and that he was unfairly imprisoned. It was a big event to see Turkey condemned for arresting someone for political purposes, while the ECHR went on to say that the Turkish president had intervened directly and publicly in a court case. It must be said that Osman Kavala was criticized by Erdogan for collaborating with an organization headed by Georges Soros.
On the other hand, certain recent French journalistic inquiries had advanced the supposition that the ECHR would have been “approached” by certain organizations dependent on Georges Soros. Should this be linked to the position maintained by Erdogan vis-à-vis the ECHR and the Council of Europe?
Faced with the ECHR’s summons to Turkey, the Council of Europe, of which Turkey is a member state, and of which Azerbaijan is also a member state and ally of Turkey, the Council of Europe was also mounted the charge by threatening Ankara with sanctions if Osman Kavala was not released.
For now, both the ECHR and the Council of Europe have not wavered the Turkish president. It is enough to observe, among others, the building of the Turkish representation in Strasbourg to note that its imposing architecture and its place close to the buildings of the European institutions is also a strong signal in the Turkish political will to continue its way in Europe as it is. ‘it is today.
Because the Turkish communities are now very active in Europe, especially in Germany, that the Turkish president has worked to instrumentalize certain states of the Balkans by providing them with support (Bosnia-Herzegovina and North Macedonia), in order to weaken the region of which Greece is a major state; that the non-recognition of maritime areas by Turkey, especially Greeks and Cypriots, was a source of crisis in which only France came to the aid of its Greek ally; that Turkey is present today in Libya, either facing the European continent, and playing its part there; finally and always Turkey since the Syrian conflict has positioned itself in the Middle East, taking advantage of the vacuum left by the United States of America.
And if the Turkish president made Osman Kavala one of those number 1 enemies, perhaps because Osman Kavala was born with a silver spoon in his mouth, the weapon remains. Erdogan’s supreme is to open the border and a new flow of migrants is once again arriving in Europe, at a time when many member states are highlighting the issue of immigration. We therefore better understand Ankara’s position vis-à-vis the ECHR and the Council of Europe, because Europe is not a state and Strasbourg is very far from Ankara.
If President Erdogan is a Tavla player, he therefore knows that with each roll of the dice, the risk is to reconsider his game. Isn’t that what he is facing the Europeans, by rolling the dice again when good? seems to him. Let us not forget the affront to the President of the European Commission, when she came with Charles Michel, the President of the European Council to Ankara, there were indeed two seats, but not three, and Madame von der Leyen had to settle for a sofa, Ottoman style instead of turning around and heading back to Brussels. Here, we still wonder what were the preparations of the European protocol for this meeting.
Let us not forget Erdogan’s affront to President Macron by questioning the mental health of the French president. And let’s not forget the tarantella that Erdogan made Angela Merkel dance in front of the migrants, so that Europe would get out its checkbook. But there are too many examples to name them all. This undoubtedly that the weakness and the European vacuum, that is to say the lack of political will of the Europeans, still and always incites Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to put the dice in the cup, and to revive them when it sees fit, since the lack of European echo confirms him in the poor opinion that he must have good feelings and European emotions. Because after all, these are just emotions …