The past emergency
In a sign that the urgency of the crisis had passed, Wagner’s fighters left the Voronezh and Lipetsk regions south of Moscow on Sunday, according to local authorities.
However, in the Russian capital as in its region, the “anti-terrorist operation regime” remains in force. Large police patrols were deployed along the road leading out of Moscow in the south of the capital, and Monday will be a non-working day in Moscow.
But if, “on the ground, nothing has changed, it is difficult to believe that, in the minds of the Russian soldiers, nothing has changed”, according to the holder of the Chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of ‘Ottawa, Dominique Arel.
The Russian army is in fact made up of different factions, some of which come from private interests, like the Wagner group, recalls his colleague, professor at the Royal Military College of Canada Pierre Jolicoeur. “To what extent will the various armed groups remain united and seek support if we are talking about a change of regime? “, he wonders.
Destroyed houses in Russia
About fifteen houses and more than 10,000 m2 roads were damaged during the armed rebellion of the Wagner group, local authorities announced on Sunday, according to what Agence France-Presse reported. This is a first partial assessment of the events that shook Russian power during the weekend.
In the Voronezh region, bordering Ukraine, “19 houses were damaged,” the head of the Pavlovsky district said on Telegram on Sunday. This damage took place “following a clash” on June 24, when a column of the Wagner group crossed our region, he said.
The local official thus confirmed that the convoy of Wagner’s men had clashed in the area with the regular army, without giving further details on the hostilities. Neither Wagner nor the Russian army have, at this stage, officially communicated on possible victims linked to these clashes.
Lukashenko’s role
The role of the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, in the negotiation that led to the retirement of Yevgeny Prigojine to his country also raises several questions.
PHOTO ALEXANDER ASTAFYEV, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES
Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus
It is that despite its title of country, Belarus seems more and more to be only a satellite state of Russia, as demonstrated by the deployment of nuclear weapons by the Russians on its territory. Thus, Lukashenko’s role could be that of a figurehead for the Russian authorities in order to conceal an embarrassing compromise for Vladimir Putin which would have tarnished his image even more, believes Pierre Jolicoeur.
And to those who believe that the events of the weekend would only be a stage, we remind the rare public outing of the Russian president who did not play in his favor. “That Putin humiliates himself in this way as part of a strategic act? It doesn’t hold up, ”says Dominique Arel.
What future for Prigojine?
Fierce critic of Russian military strategy in Ukraine, Evgeny Prigojine will escape any legal proceedings and will be able to join Belarus, the Kremlin has promised.
However, more than 24 hours after the crisis, the leader of the Wagner group had still not spoken publicly, and his whereabouts are unknown. He has still not himself confirmed the agreement concluded with the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko.
Belarusian authorities have told CNN they still do not know what the Wagner Group strongman’s status will be in his new host country and cannot even confirm whether he has arrived.
And for the Wagner group?
The events of the past few days come as the lower house of the Russian parliament, the Duma, is working on a law aimed at regulating the Wagner group, according to a Russian official whose remarks were reported by CNN.
“What the government is telling us is that there will be no more Wagner and there will be no more Prigojine. Well, maybe, but let’s wait and see, “says Dominique Arel. After all, the Wagner group was for Russia “the strike force” on the eastern front, in Ukraine, he recalls.
With Agence France-Presse and CNN