Quebec’s real estate market is poised for significant activity in 2025, driven by a 52% increase in residential transactions and rising property prices. First-time buyers are taking advantage of lower rates, but upcoming mortgage renewals may pose challenges for many homeowners. Despite an influx of new listings, prices are expected to rise by 7% to 11% across regions, with notable growth in Quebec City and Greater Montreal. A trend towards higher-end sales is also emerging, reflecting strong demand.
Quebec Real Estate Market Outlook for 2025
The real estate sector in Quebec is gearing up for an exciting 2025, as it anticipates a continuation of the vigorous activity witnessed in recent months. With a notable surge in transactions, experts predict an escalation in property prices as well.
In December, residential transactions soared by 52% compared to the same month last year, a trend largely credited to the five consecutive adjustments to the key interest rate over the last seven months. Charles Brant, director of market analysis at the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (APCIQ), points out that first-time buyers have been pivotal in this surge, capitalizing on lower rates and an increase in available listings during the fall.
Impact of Mortgage Renewals and Market Dynamics
Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, deputy chief economist at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), echoes this sentiment. She highlights the renewal of approximately 1.2 million fixed-rate mortgages in 2025, which could significantly influence market dynamics. With 85% of these mortgages secured when the Bank of Canada’s rate was at or below 1%, many borrowers may face challenges as they renew at considerably higher rates.
While the situation is not dire yet, the Quebec company JLR, a subsidiary of Equifax, has reported a troubling rise in bad debts over the past year. There has been a 19% increase in notices of exercise, a 21% rise in defaults, and a 17% surge in legal mortgages, indicating that numerous homeowners are grappling with financial struggles.
Anticipating these challenges, an influx of listings is expected, boosting the volume of homes available on the resale market. Throughout 2024, the APCIQ reported a 13% increase in new listings, totaling 133,778. As of January 1, 2025, the inventory of homes available for resale stood at 36,230, marking a 14% rise from the previous year.
Despite the increase in listings, property prices are projected to remain on an upward trajectory. Economists forecast average price hikes between 7% to 9% across different regions and property types in 2025. Royal LePage anticipates a 7% increase in Quebec prices, with Greater Montreal expected to see a 6.5% rise, outpacing Toronto and Vancouver.
Particularly, the city of Quebec is poised for remarkable growth, with a predicted 11% increase in prices, largely driven by limited inventory. Last year, the median price of single-family homes in Quebec rose by 8%, reaching $450,000, while condominiums saw a 5% increase, averaging $378,000.
The Greater Montreal area, after a sluggish start, has rebounded robustly, with December’s real estate activity showing the highest levels since January 2022. According to Daren King, chief economist at the National Bank, transactions in the area are only 5.2% below pre-pandemic levels.
In contrast, the Greater Quebec metropolitan area is experiencing a significant drop in available properties, which has led to some of the most substantial price increases in the province. The median price of single-family homes in December 2024 reached $411,500, up 16% from the previous year, while the condominium market saw an 18% rise, reaching a median price of $270,000.
As the demand for homes continues to outstrip supply, Royal LePage predicts that price growth will hit new heights in 2025, with an anticipated 11% increase in the median price—the highest among major Canadian metropolitan areas.
Moreover, there is an observable trend across Quebec toward higher-end transactions. In the Greater Montreal area, the APCIQ reported a 38% increase in home sales priced above $900,000 during the first eleven months of 2024. The Quebec region, encompassing both the city and its suburbs, saw an even more dramatic rise, with nearly 80% more homes sold for prices exceeding $700,000.