(Ottawa) The Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, congratulated his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, on his re-election, while recalling the importance of the rule of law.
Mr Modi won a week-long election on Tuesday, securing a majority but losing more seats than expected to opposition parties.
This result could pave the way for a diplomatic break with Canada, although experts say it would take some time.
“The Indian government must now achieve more victories. I think he might be very willing to work with Canada to find a solution,” argued Vijay Sappani, analyst at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
Despite the significant volume of trade between Canada and India, relations have been strained for years due to efforts by some Canadians to advocate for the creation of a separate Sikh homeland in India, called Khalistan.
These tensions came to a head last fall when Mr. Trudeau publicly accused the Indian government of being involved in the murder of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar near Vancouver.
In a written statement, the Liberal leader said Canada is “ready to work with India to advance relations between our peoples, so that they are based on human rights, diversity and primacy law “.
Mr. Sappani points out that it will be months before the Modi government chooses a foreign minister and undertakes diplomatic steps. According to him, there are, however, reasons to be optimistic.
“Depending on the evolution of the Nijjar case and the desire of both parties to move forward, we should start to see an improvement in (the) relationship,” he assured.
In his opinion, a “good signal” from India would be the restoration of diplomatic immunity withdrawn from 41 Canadian envoys last fall.
He noted that two fierce supporters of Khalistan, the name of the state claimed by Sikh separatists from the Indian state of Punjab, were elected to the Indian parliament, one of whom is in prison. This should serve as proof that the Khalistan movement is popular in India and not just in other countries, he said.
“Canada will have ammunition, but both countries benefit from having these conversations in private. »
Mr. Sappani added that Canada could work with the United States to obtain assurances that India would not be involved in future attempts targeting Sikhs abroad.
“India has learned its lesson: you don’t do this kind of thing in a NATO country. »
“A lot of apprehension” among Sikhs
Sikh independence activists remain highly critical of the Modi government, whose current line, in response to Mr Nijjar’s assassination, is that it does not have a policy of assassinating people abroad .
New Yorker Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a close friend of Hardeep Singh Nijjar whom US prosecutors consider a potential assassination target, said the fact that Mr. Modi’s party lost seats did not change the level of risk that the separatists face.
“The question is not who rules India. The question is whether we will be able to get the vote for independence for Punjab,” he stressed.
There will be “a lot of apprehension” among Sikhs, believes Jasveer Singh, spokesperson for the Sikh Press Association, representing the independence movement.
But he added that many in the community feel vindicated by the change in public sentiment that showed up in the election outcome.
“To some extent, there is no doubt that this reflects a growing contempt for the fanatical and nationalist regime (under) Modi. »
Mr. Modi’s weaker performance means his Bharatiya Janata Party is more dependent on its political allies to form a coalition government, noted Shivaji Mukherjee, an assistant professor of political science at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, in British Columbia.
He said this could mean the government would soften its approach towards Muslims, Sikhs and other minority communities in India.
The effect on the international situation is less clear, nuanced Mr. Mukherjee.
However, he said he believed Canada-India relations had already improved and that, if there were no major changes in Mr. Modi’s cabinet, they would “continue to improve.” improve slowly.”