Turkey’s election results surprised observers. While many of them insisted on the aging of an incumbent president facing a lasting economic crisis and the consequences of the earthquake of February 2023, he was certainly forced for the first time to contest a second ballot, but he won, on May 28, with a score comparable (52.12%) to that which he had obtained in 2018 (52.59%).
It is true that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan mastered most of the country’s means of communication and that he did not hesitate to take a series of clientelist decisions at the right time (cancellation of energy bills, salary increases, even distribution of banknotes) , but his re-election, easier than expected, is also explained by a number of substantive reasons.
A solid electoral base
The often worrying polls for the leader of the AKP on the eve of the election undoubtedly testified to strong discontent, fueled in particular by the economic crisis. The results show, however, that this handicap did not benefit the opposition candidate as much as one might have thought. Geographically, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who achieves his best scores in the zones of influence of the member parties of his coalition (European Turkey, the provinces of the Aegean and Mediterranean coasts, of the Kurdish Southeast, of the eastern borders, of Tunceli , Ankara and Eskişehir), thus appears as the man of borders and shores, when his adversary camps resolutely representing deep Anatolia, easily winning in most of the other provinces of a peninsula which constitutes the main part of the Turkish territory, as well as in those of the Asian shores of the Black Sea.
The acceleration of the urbanization of this country (more than 80% of the population now lives in cities) led to think that a new generation was asserting itself; which seemed to be evidenced by the loss by the ruling party of the emblematic municipalities of Ankara and Istanbul, during the 2019 elections. But the presidential and legislative elections, which have just taken place simultaneously, have not seen the opposition to gain a foothold in the dense network of Anatolian cities to challenge the influence of the outgoing president there as it had done four years ago in the large megalopolises of the West.
Within the neo-urban populations that make up the bulk of his electorate, Erdoğan therefore remained a protective figure, embodying the omnipotence of the state and the traditions of the majority Sunni Hanafi religion, in the face of an Alevi adversary of Kurdish origin, perceived at best with suspicion, at worst with hostility.
The flattering scores achieved by the outgoing president in many of the territories affected by the February earthquake (75.77%, in particular, in Kahramanmaraş which was his epicenter) are edifying, and indicate that this electorate hardly sanctioned the head of the State in this regard, and preferred to believe in its promises of rapid reconstruction.
The ambient uncertainties fueled by a deteriorating economic situation and the effects of the seismic disaster ultimately did not lead a majority of voters to choose change. This is also due to the fact that, while Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu brilliantly succeeded in rallying most of the formations and personalities hostile to his rival, he failed to convince that he could lead a credible alternation, all the more so because he went to the second round when the ruling alliance, by winning the legislative elections, had just retained its absolute majority in Parliament.
Erdoğan back on the international scene
This electoral success will probably lead the Turkish leader to break the reserve he had observed on the international scene before the election. Significantly, it was not only Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán or Ilham Aliyev who were quick to congratulate him, but also his Western partners, such as Joe Biden or Rishi Sunak, who both said they were “looking forward” to working with Ankara again in the within NATO. Emmanuel Macron, for his part, considered that France and Turkey had “tremendous challenges to take up together”, referring in particular to “the return of peace in Europe, the future of our Euro-Atlantic Alliance and the Mediterranean”. .
It is true that Turkey is expected on several fronts. In the eastern Mediterranean, will it continue the rapprochement initiated with Greece in the context of the empathy aroused by the earthquake? Moreover, while she wishes to acquire American F-16 planes, will she end up agreeing to Sweden’s entry into NATO? Finally, it is important to remember that Turkey is the only country to have effectively intervened with the belligerents of the war in Ukraine, by having them sign the famous cereal agreement of July 2022. At a time when this conflict is entering the a new phase, it therefore remains an essential strategic player.
* Jean Marcou is a member of the Observatory on the Middle East and North Africa of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair at UQAM.