Rising in the polls, the head of the socialist list is striving to defend a pro-European position, hostile to Russia. But he must deal with the increasingly frontal attacks of his adversaries, left and center.
For the first time since 2014, the Socialist Party (PS) could exceed 10% in a national election. Aside from senatorial and local elections, the rose party has been suffering electoral disappointments in its own name for a decade. So, when the polls for the European elections of June 9 began to simmer for Raphaël Glucksmann in January, the socialists saw a glimpse of the clearing.
For several weeks, the one who was already the head of the list of the PS and its small party, Place publique, in 2019, has benefited from good momentum in the opinion surveys in recent weeks. At a meeting in Nantes, Saturday April 13, the essayist benefited from double-digit voting intentions: 11.5% according to the Ipsos institute on March 11; 13% according to Harris Interactive on March 20; or even 12% with Elabe on April 8.
“These good polls do not surprise us, it is proof that the political coherence that we have and the proposals that we make meet an expectation”welcomes Pierre Jouvet, spokesperson for the candidate and member of the list. “We are in a duel, but we will perhaps move on to a trio with Raphaël Glucksmann, if it continues like this. He can arrive in front of Renaissance”, estimates for his part an executive of the National Rally (RN), while the campaign of the Macronist Valérie Hayer stagnates below 20% of voting intentions. It is located very far from the RN of Jordan Bardella, several times measured at more than 30% in these polls.
Supported by those disappointed with Macron and Mélenchon
How can we explain that the candidate of the social democratic left has managed to get ahead of his rebellious and environmentalist competitors, Manon Aubry and Marie Toussaint, often credited with less than 9% of voting intentions? In a recent publication, the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, classified on the left, looked at the support of the head of the socialist list. “Part of Emmanuel Macron’s electorate is switching to Raphaël Glucksmann because they are disappointed by the policies carried out at the national level (on pensions, on ecology, on immigration and on feminism)analyzes political scientist Antoine Bristielle in this note. Part of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s electorate is switching to Raphaël Glucksmann because they are disappointed with LFI’s positions on international issues, and in particular on Ukraine and Hamas.”
Faced with Jordan Bardella, the socialist candidate could therefore benefit from a form of “useful vote” to the detriment of the center and the radical left. To counter this breakthrough, its competitors are targeting it more and more, with angles of attack specific to each list. The Ecologists-EELV insist on the votes of the socialists in the European Parliament, which would be in contradiction with what they defend during this campaign. “In the European Parliament, socialists vote for the CAP, for free trade agreements and for mega-trucks”, thus denounced Marie Toussaint on France 2, Monday eveningwhich the socialists contest.
For example, the group of socialist MEPs voted overwhelmingly for the free trade agreement with New Zealand in November 2023, but not Raphaël Glucksmann and his French socialist colleagues, who voted against.
The attacks of environmentalists and LFI
At the same time, some ecologists recognize that the candidate supported by the PS has a positioning “clear” : “Raphaël Glucksmann speaks in particular about a subject: human rights. That’s a bit the subject of these elections, we are in the middle of a war, there is interference… He says: ‘Putin is evil, we must help the Ukrainians'”summarizes an executive from the Ecologists, who however does not forget to tackle him.
“On subjects other than Ukraine and human rights, it’s empty, he sends the others to speak!”
A cadre of Ecologists-EELVat franceinfo
La France insoumise is not kind to the social democratic candidate either. “It’s amazing, he’s going to have a meeting in Toulouse and we don’t know what he thinks of the A69 between Castres and Toulouse”, mocks an LFI executive, who believes that the popularity of the MEP is declining. As reported by France Bleu, the candidate “recalled the opposition of Place publique to this highway project, assuming its differences with Carole Delga [la présidente socialiste de la Région Occitanie] on this point”.
The radical left movement also denounces the position of the socialist list on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Raphaël Glucksmann refused, notably on the set of “Quotidien” in mid-March, to talk about “genocide” underway in Gaza. He prefers to evoke a “carnage”a semantic distinction often pointed out by rebellious troops. “In Gaza, he was caught”wants to believe the same LFI executive, who sees a link with a slight drop in popularity on social networks.
Renaissance changed strategy
To try to set up a duel between these two visions of the left, the head of the LFI list, Manon Aubry, sent him an open letter at the beginning of April, based on the model of the epistolary exchange begun in January between Raphaël Glucksmann and François Ruffin. This letter has, to date, not received a response from the socialist camp.
For its part, the presidential camp has made a change of strategy. At the start of the campaign, Valérie Hayer saw fit to emphasize the political proximity, in the European Parliament, between the majority and the PS candidate. “With Raphaël Glucksmann, we vote 90% the same way (…) He should be with us and he knows it”declared the head of the Renaissance list at Figaroend of February. “Talking about joint votes with him is dangerous. It should have been done six months ago”then swept aside a Macronist deputy, who feared seeing the left wing of the majority heading towards the PS.
Since then, Renaissance has preferred to focus its attacks on the essayist’s supposed contradictions. “We cannot vote for Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the legislative elections and then defend Ukraine”supports a strategist of the Macronist campaign.
Renaissance elected officials also point out its torn position in a party divided between the camp of Olivier Faure, defender of a union of the left, and those of Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol and Hélène Geoffroy, reluctant, even hostile, to Nupes and his future avatars. “Socialists can have great divisions and come together in moments of importance”, sweeps away its spokesperson, Pierre Jouvet. The fact remains that each current of the PS sees in the progress of Raphaël Glucksmann the sign that it is indeed his line which must impose itself within the party after the election.
Avoid shortness of breath
While awaiting the verdict of the polls, his team refuses to carry out media “coups”, like the rallies of the ex-Fillonist Malika Sorel to the RN or the pro-Palestinian jurist Rima Hassan to LFI. Raphaël Glucksmann will continue to occupy the field with, “each week, special highlights of the program”Pierre Jouvet projects, while the socialist list, already known, has no surprises to offer.
His campaign team wants to be very cautious about how the next two months will turn out, because “all elections crystallize at the end”recalls the spokesperson. “It’s in the last three weeks that the election takes place”also estimated at the end of March Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade, campaign director of Valérie Hayer, during a press conference.
Each camp is well aware that an electoral dynamic can be ephemeral, fragile and very quickly exhausted, because of a failed debate or a less promising theme. After having exceeded 10% in the polls in 2019, the head of the LR list, François-Xavier Bellamy, had finally collected only 8.48% of the votes during the previous European election. If he can hope to double his score from five years ago (6.19%), Raphaël Glucksmann will have to go the distance to prevent the blow from falling again.