Ontarians are called to the polls on Thursday. After a month of campaigning, they will decide which of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives, Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats or Steven Del Duca’s Liberals they want to see in power. Here are some ridings to watch on election night.
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
This liberal castle with a French-speaking majority went from red to blue in 2018 thanks to the election of Amanda Simard. The MP for Eastern Ontario, however, left the Ford government soon after, in the wake of its cuts to French-language services, before joining the Liberal ranks in 2020.
It is Stéphane Sarrazin, the mayor of the Township of Alfred and Plantagenet, who now represents the Progressive Conservative Party. And the latter seems to benefit from a change of opinion on the part of Franco-Ontarians with regard to the Ford clan, whose cuts had led to monster demonstrations in 2018.
The Liberals and Progressive Conservatives are engaged in a close contest this time in the riding. Chef Steven Del Duca visited his candidate twice; the Minister of Francophone Affairs, Caroline Mulroney, has visited the region three times.
Windsor Tecumseh
Doug Ford’s election press conferences were few in number, but he thought fit to hold one in this riding just three days before the election.
During the campaign, the Progressive Conservative Party claimed to be the workers’ party. This race, in a constituency where the rate of unionization is high, will show whether his seduction operation has borne fruit. The party’s candidate, Franco-Ontarian Andrew Dowie, says he is confident: “Every time I knock on the door, the world tells me: ‘I voted NDP or Liberal all my life, but this time, I like what Ford says.
NDP incumbent Percy Hatfield announced in July that he would not seek a fourth term. He won with 58% of the vote in 2018. The two neighboring constituencies – Essex and Windsor West – are also to be watched.
Vaughan Woodbridge
It is in this suburban (and very Italian) riding in the Toronto area that Liberal leader Steven Del Duca is seeking election. He faces conservative Michael Tibollo, who beat him in 2018 with 50% of the vote. The Conservative has been demoted twice in his party’s caucus in the past four years. But according to the 338Canada site, he is still ahead in the polls; the firm Mainstreet comes to the same conclusion.
Steven Del Duca’s days as leader of the Liberal Party could be numbered if he does not snatch this constituency, especially as he has spent the past two years without a seat at Queen’s Park. He did not want to say what will happen if he does not win the electoral fight on Thursday evening.
For its part, the NDP, which has no chance of winning the riding, has nevertheless made targeted publicity there.
Sault Ste. Married
The third time is usually the good one. However, during a short election campaign, we don’t always have that third opportunity. NDP Leader Andrea Horwath found out the hard way after having to cancel her visit to Sault Ste. Marie twice, first because she contracted COVID-19, then a week later because her plane had mechanical problems.
The NDP is popular in northern Ontario — it won eight of the region’s 13 ridings in 2018 — but the party was unable to win Sault Ste. Marie since 1999. Conservative Minister Ross Romano, on the other hand, snatched victory by only 414 votes in 2018. The NDP accused him of residing in Sudbury, outside his riding; the curator denied, calling the allegation a “low-level political attack.”
Don Valley West
The Progressive Conservatives recruited former Toronto police chief Mark Saunders to win this riding in northwest Toronto, the hometown of former premier Kathleen Wynne. The former Liberal leader remained an MP in 2018, but she is not seeking a sixth term this year. Banker Stephanie Bowman does it for her.
According to the 338Canada website, the Conservatives had almost no chance of winning at the start of the campaign, but the gap between the blues and the reds has narrowed in recent days. According to Myer Siemiatycki, professor emeritus of political science at Metropolitan University of Toronto (formerly Ryerson University), the fight is now tight because the Liberals’ provincial campaign has lacked momentum.
Hamilton East–Stoney Creek
Who says Hamilton usually says NDP. But it is difficult to predict what will happen Thursday evening in this riding in the south of the city, neighboring that of the leader of the NDP Andrea Horwath. According to polling analyst Philippe J. Fournier, it is thanks to this kind of gain that the Conservatives could obtain a “supermajority” on Thursday. Leader Doug Ford was in the riding to visit candidate Neil Lumsden in late May.
In March, the NDP fired its candidate, incumbent Paul Miller, for allegedly racist remarks (the party did not provide further details). The latter is now suing Andrea Horwath for discrimination and is running as an independent candidate. About 10% of voters could vote for him instead of – presumably – the NDP, which could open the door to a Conservative victory.
Brampton East
The brother of federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, Gurratan Singh, is seeking a second term in this riding, one of five in the city on the outskirts of Toronto. The five counties are red federally, but provincially, the New Democrats and the Conservatives shared them in 2018. Thursday evening, Brampton East could be the only riding in the city that remains orange, according to Philippe J. Fournier.
Midway through the campaign, the Liberals found themselves in hot water after their candidate, Jannat Garewal, claimed in an interview that her party would “definitely build Highway 413.” The Liberal leader had however insisted that his party would put an end to the road project, which would bypass Brampton, if he were elected premier. “Steven Del Duca says different things to his candidates than to the public,” reacted the NPD.
This story is supported by the Local Journalism Initiative, funded by the Government of Canada.