Economic cooperation between China and Russia in the Arctic region has intensified in recent months and even weeks. Remember, China has no territory bordering the Arctic Ocean, but still aspires to become an important player in the region. For its part, Canada holds an immense territory that is part of this region, but has few ambitions for it.
I recently read that Russia received, in the Kaliningrad region, located between Lithuania and Poland, a first ship from China. This was the first ship from elsewhere to take the “Northern Sea Route”, a route which connects Europe and China via the Arctic.
This may be the first ship from China, but certainly not the last, with accelerating ice melt and increased economic cooperation between the two countries since the start of the war in Ukraine. These events suggest that a race against time for economic and geopolitical domination of the region has indeed begun. With 40% of its land mass belonging to this region, Canada is part of it, whether it likes it or not.
What interest for China?
In 2018, China self-declared itself as a “near Arctic” nation, a declaration that quite clearly affirms its interest in this region. It aspires to obtain a greater role in the Arctic to meet economic, scientific and strategic objectives. Among its projects, a “Polar Silk Road” is among its priorities. The passage of a first Chinese ship to the north of Russia therefore suggests the future of this new route.
On the Russian side, there has been “a recent increase in shipments of Russian crude oil to Chinese ports via the Northern Sea Route,” the Voice of America reports. According to this same source, this year, there were at least ten shipments of Russian oil via this route to China. If we compare with the year 2022, there would have been only one.
An observant and little-involved Canada
Since the end of the Cold War, Canada seems to be reactive rather than proactive on the Arctic issue. In 2006, the Harper government took a great interest in the region on a more military level. He made several promises, most of which were never fulfilled. According to Christopher Sands and Vincent Rigby of the Wilson Center, Canada is the NATO member present in the Arctic with the weakest front among all the other members present.
Since then, the Canadian government has done little in terms of actions in this region. The goals and objectives contained in the Arctic and Northern Strategic Framework remain rather vague and unambitious.
The Arctic is considered a region that contains a large number of natural resources (notably energy and mining). It also presents significant economic opportunities for the populations who live there. Without forgetting the increasingly accessible maritime routes which also constitute an unprecedented economic opportunity.
Additionally, China holds the economic and technological resources, and Russia holds a strong military presence, several important infrastructures and increased knowledge of the region. This is a combination that could potentially create a serious situation of bipolarity between these two powers and NATO members in the Arctic.
Finally, apart from the economic and geopolitical sides, we must be aware of the importance of protecting the environment of the Arctic region. This is why we must act and increase our presence there to ensure better control, because an oil accident could have devastating effects.
For the moment, more fear than harm, but who knows what the future has in store for us, especially with the melting of the ice accelerating from year to year.