Rainbows are more discreet, as are those who believe that “it’s going to be fine”.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
How to sum up the collective mood? It’s not hope anymore, and it’s not anger yet. The population seems to have stopped somewhere between these two poles, shows our CROP survey. She is resigned, and that does not threaten the CAQ government too much.
After all, hope is dangerous. It creates expectations. He shops for disappointments. But the respondents have gone elsewhere.
No less than 69% of respondents believe that Quebec will not be “back to normal” within one or two years.
In the next elections, in October, they would therefore not be surprised or shocked to still have to follow certain health instructions. And if nothing changes, François Legault will get another landslide victory.
Despite everything, yellow lights come on.
The rate of satisfaction with regard to its management of the pandemic is falling and this trend is heavy. Looking closely at the survey, we notice that the percentage of people “little or not satisfied” has jumped since the start of the pandemic, from 12% to 47%.
Of course, we can forgive the caquists for the state of the health network, which is the responsibility of previous governments. But that does not excuse the slow distribution of rapid tests, the management of the air quality file in schools, the mixed messages on Christmas Eve and other difficult episodes of the pandemic.
After four waves, one would expect the government to have learned from its mistakes.
By taking a step back, we put the fall into perspective. Mr. Legault won the 2018 election with 37.4% of the vote, and his support increased in the following months. At the start of the pandemic, he collected more than 50% of voting intentions. It was a peak, and the descent was inevitable. For him, the important thing is that this slope is gentle. And even if the decline has accelerated a little since the arrival of the Omicron variant, it is far from dizzying…
What is especially stable is the unpopularity of the opposition parties. None of them manage to exceed 20%, the threshold at which votes give several seats in our voting system..
Since January, Quebec has posted one of the worst death rates among industrialized countries. Yet the needle barely moves for the opposition.
Maybe because despite their criticism, people doubt that the other chefs would have done better.
In the fall of 2020, the Liberals accused the CAQ government of threatening “social peace”. We haven’t gotten there.
The more time passes, the more respondents consider the instructions too strict (7% in March 2020 compared to 33% now) and want to regain their freedom. But the hard core of protesters remains weak and stable. Those who refuse to follow the rules make up only around 5% of the population, and this rate has not varied significantly since the start of the crisis.
Pandemic fatigue is observed. Fewer respondents today feel the “duty” to respect the instructions or to “follow them to the letter”. These rates went from 91% to 86%, and from 89% to 80%. Despite this decline, adherence to the measures remains strong.
Quebecers are not rebelling. They don’t separate either. But they are tired and irritable, and they allow themselves small transgressions. It has also become that, living with the virus.
The 18-34 year olds should still worry the Prime Minister. They are significantly more dissatisfied and less fearful of the virus. If the measures last too long, they may no longer adhere to them.
Mr. Legault admits to being under intense pressure to deconfine Quebec. Public Health advises him to wait a bit.
Moreover, there was little to announce Thursday at the press conference, apart from updating the metaphor of “light at the end of the tunnel”. The new version: this light can be seen but we don’t know how far away it is…
The satisfaction rate measured by CROP relates to the management of the pandemic. Léger has already assessed that it was the weak link in the CAQ government.
Mr. Legault would no doubt like to talk about another subject. Or at least, talk about the responsibility of another category of citizens: the non-vaccinated.
Even if social peace is not threatened, tensions are indeed increasing. The rate of respondents in favor of the mandatory vaccination passport in large businesses (68%) or a tax imposed on non-vaccinated people (65%) is higher than that of people satisfied with crisis management.
This is not unique to Quebec. According to a Maru poll published Thursday, two out of three Canadians are in favor of compulsory vaccination, and 27% even agree to briefly put the non-vaccinated in prison!
In France, Emmanuel Macron harmed the social climate by insulting the non-vaccinated for electoral reasons. The tightening of the vaccine passport is defended for reasons of public health, but nothing justifies insulting citizens who are already suspicious of the authorities. It is therefore reassuring that Lionel Carmant, the very polite Minister Delegate for Health, has just received the mandate to convince the non-vaccinated to obtain their doses.
In the meantime, our health system is still holding on to duct tape, and the population has become desensitized to it. This resignation hurts, but it is not the CAQ government that is paying the biggest price.