A discussion about redrawing the federal electoral map has just been revived by the Bloc Québécois. It concerns the weight of Quebec in Ottawa and it is fundamental.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
Reminder: last fall, in the wake of the census, the Chief Electoral Officer of Canada (CEO) indicated that the number of seats in the House of Commons must increase from 338 to 342.
This modification is suggested in view of the demographic changes in the country.
The problem for Quebec is that its population is not growing as quickly as in the rest of Canada.
The DGE therefore felt that the number of seats allocated to Quebec should drop. According to his calculations, the province would lose a seat (and fall from 78 to 77).
However, the Bloc has just had a motion adopted on Wednesday according to which any scenario “which would have the effect of causing the loss of one or more electoral districts in Quebec or of reducing the political weight of Quebec in the House of Commons” should be rejected.
The motion also calls for changes to “the formula for allocating seats in the House”.
We can only rejoice at the adoption, by a large majority of deputies – only the Conservatives were truly divided on this subject – of these two demands.
This is because two distinct problems arose.
The first, the simplest, will now be resolved in the very short term.
The second is much more complex and a solution could only be found in the longer term.
Let’s explain.
Under the motion adopted, by the time the changes announced in 2024 come into force, the federal government will have found a way not to remove any seats from Quebec. But it is, in this case, a simple question of political will.
On the other hand, if the demographic weight of Quebec continues to fall, there is a limit to wanting to protect its political weight in Ottawa in the long term.
We will hit a wall called the Canadian Constitution. It provides that the number of members of each province reflects the proportion of its inhabitants within Canada.
“The applicable principle is proportional representation. This principle has never been applied in a perfectly rigorous way, variations of a few degrees have been accepted, but we cannot go beyond without a formal constitutional amendment”, explained Benoît Pelletier, full professor at the Faculty of law from the University of Ottawa.
To solve this more complex problem, the Bloc has also proposed a solution. In a bill tabled last week, he refers to amending section 51 of the British North America Act. It would specify that Quebec must be granted at least 25% of the seats in the House of Commons.
This formula is modeled on that provided by the Charlottetown Accord in the early 1990s.
However, for a constitutional law expert like Benoît Pelletier, this scenario does not hold water. It is that the mechanism on which it relies cannot be used when it comes to calling into question the principle of proportional representation.
He is convinced that the only option for such a change would be a constitutional amendment.
There is no fire, of course.
Quebec will not lose a seat this time, which is very good news, and it is only in ten years that the question will arise again.
But the more the decades pass, the more serious the problem will become.
We repeat: all of this is perfectly normal under the demographic evolution.
On the other hand, this loss of political weight is anything but normal if we take into account the “specificity” of Quebec, as Minister Sonia LeBel pointed out last year.
If the political weight of Quebec in Ottawa were reduced, its interests would be “gradually marginalized”, she had written to the Canadian Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs, Dominic LeBlanc.
And if we don’t find a lasting way to solve this problem, Quebec’s voice in Ottawa will slowly but surely weaken.