The figures changed little in the latest Léger poll for the Quebecor group on Quebec politics, with almost all movements falling within the margin of error. This lack of movement means something: Quebecers seem dissatisfied with the current political offer.
With more than two years until the next elections, this certainly does not allow us to draw definitive conclusions, but two things seem obvious.
The first is dissatisfaction with the government of François Legault and the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which was nevertheless re-elected with an almost historic majority in October 2022. The government has not been idle, but its solutions , like health or transportation agencies, do not seem to immediately win the support of voters.
At the same time, Quebecers do not seem to see any alternative solution capable of forming a stable and credible government in the current political offer.
This applies in particular to the Parti Québécois (PQ), which took the lead in voting intentions last December and which, since then, seems to have plateaued and even declined slightly, even if it remains in first place.
There are two problems that we can notice: first, the PQ seems incapable of moving the needle on its option. The sovereignty vote needle appears not to be moving with support at around 36%.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon continues to promise a referendum for the first mandate of a PQ government, but support for his option fails to grow.
Even more serious, the PQ seems incapable of taking advantage of the difficulties of the other officially sovereignist political party, Québec solidaire (QS), which finds itself at 12% in the latest poll, tied with the Conservative Party.
It must be said that Paul St-Pierre Plamondon did not help himself with his outing on the federal government which is openly planning the assimilation of Quebecers, a statement which only wins the support of 30% of voters. In short, this mobilizes the PQ, but it does not have the effect of increasing support for the PQ.
PHOTO OLIVIER JEAN, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
The leader of the Parti Québécois, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon
The PQ’s big advantage remains its 40% of the French-speaking vote, which should give it a plurality of seats in the National Assembly if the election took place now.
Québec solidaire is experiencing an internal crisis, and this is weighing down voting intentions. Voters don’t like bickering, and the current crisis is damaging the credibility of the party itself.
Other bad news, QS only obtains the support of 11% of voters in the Montreal metropolitan region, where nine of its 12 deputies are located, some of whom do not have very strong majorities.
It is possible that this drop is cyclical and that QS will regain its level of support when its crisis is resolved. But in the circumstances, nothing is certain.
The Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ) is experiencing a possible improvement with two points more than last month, but it remains out of the game in terms of forming the next government. With a dismal 6% of the vote among French-speaking voters, all that remains is its current strongholds in the west of the island of Montreal.
The PLQ leadership race has not yet really started and the candidates are not jostling at the gate. In this context, it is likely that the reconstruction of the Liberal Party will take time and last more than one electoral cycle.
Which brings us to the CAQ, which finds itself with 22% of the votes (down two points since last month). His worst score since his first electoral victory in 2018.
If we take the last election in October 2022 as a basis, the CAQ has therefore lost almost half of its support.
But the big question that the CAQ government will have to face is a question of generations, essentially.
Even though we are not yet at the mid-term, it is clear that several of the pillars of the CAQ government may not be candidates in the next election. Energy Minister Pierre Fitzgibbon, 69, has already indicated he will not be a candidate in 2026 and it is unclear whether he will complete his current term.
No one expects that the Minister of Health, Christian Dubé, 67, will still be in the running. The Minister of Finance, Eric Girard, at 57 years old, could be tempted by a departure for federal politics.
François Legault has already said that his decision to stay or leave politics will depend on two factors: his health and whether Quebecers still want him. But he will also have to ask himself if he wants to rebuild his team.
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