Even if Quebecers represent 22% of the Canadian population, they would only inherit 17.6% of the federal debt in an independent Quebec, calculates the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the “year one budget” that he will testify on Monday.
According to these estimates, modeled on those made in 2005 by François Legault in a similar exercise, a sovereign Quebec would see its gross debt swell from $211 billion to $415.3 billion, which would not prevent it from ranking among the best G7 countries in terms of debt-to-GDP ratio.
By tabling his own budget for year one, in 2005, François Legault, then in opposition, calculated that after independence, 18.2% of the federal debt would end up in Quebec. The demographic weight of the province then amounted to some 23.5% of the Canadian population.
According to the PQ’s renewed calculations, debts from the federal government would this time increase the gross debt-to-GDP ratio from around 40%, currently, to 77%, the day after a winning referendum for the “Yes”. Within the G7, only Germany would be doing better, notes the sovereignist group. And among Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, an independent Quebec would rank in the middle of the pack, ahead of countries like the United States, France, Spain and the United Kingdom.
We not only compare ourselves favorably to OECD countries, we compare ourselves favorably to European Union countries, then we compare ourselves favorably to the United States
“We not only compare ourselves favorably with the OECD countries, we compare ourselves favorably with the countries of the European Union, then we compare ourselves favorably with the United States,” says Paul St-Pierre Plamondon enthusiastically, met in his office a few days before the publication of the document that he has been promising for more than a year.
In the past, the question has almost always been: “Would a sovereign Quebec be financially viable?” » Now that he has his budget at hand, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon sees even bigger things for Quebec.
“It is a starting point for independent Quebec which is very enviable and very comfortable,” he underlines when questioned about the debt calculated by his teams. “All the indicators are green. We are really in a context where the data is encouraging, and it is an environment that is very positive for building a country, on a financial level. »
No return to balanced budget
As François Legault concluded in 2005, when he was in the PQ opposition, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon notes that the effect of separation on the budget deficit would be clearly beneficial for Quebec.
At the time, Mr. Legault estimated Quebec’s five-year budget balance at nearly $14 billion. According to him, independence would have allowed the State to make “a financial gain” of 17 billion dollars.
The observation is basically the same this time. According to PQ estimates, the budget balance of an independent state in 2027-2028 would be $12 billion above current projections in a Quebec province.
“PSPP” avoids mentioning a return to budget balance after five years. In his budget for year one, he places Quebec’s deficit in 2027-2028 at $5.5 billion. A total much less than the surplus of 5.2 billion estimated at the time by François Legault.
“I was in chr…”
This is the third time that the PQ has carried out the exercise of evaluating the financial merits of independence. The first portrait of the finances of a sovereign Quebec appeared in 1973. It was the PQ candidate in Crémazie at the time, Jacques Parizeau, who had to defend it… but the idea did not come from him, says Louis Bernard, who headed research at the parliamentary wing of the Parti Québécois in the 1970s.
“To defend him publicly, [M. Parizeau] had certain difficulties, he relates. The idea came from [René] Lévesque. It’s not really like it’s its own file. »
The future prime minister was also entrusted with this mandate during his stay in Mexico. In volume two of his biography on Jacques Parizeau, ex-journalist Pierre Duchesne quotes the politician word for word: “I was in chr…”
“Once the decision was made, he played the game,” says Mr. Parizeau’s biographer in an interview with The duty. Until agreeing to hold a debate on television. It was a strange strategic choice, because Parizeau found himself alone against three other parties to justify a completely hypothetical document. »
“Parizeau was never again a promoter of this type of exercise,” explains Mr. Duchesne.
On the contrary, for François Legault, the budget made in 2005 was self-evident. Even though, for him, the advantage was double, with the very real prospect of a race for the leadership of the PQ, underlines an advisor from the time of PQ leader Bernard Landry, who preferred not to be named. “He was looking for a ball to catch and run with. »
“It was a vast exercise,” says former PQ economic advisor Frédéric Alberro, who worked on this document with Mr. Legault. “It’s complex. »
The former collaborator of Lucien Bouchard and Bernard Landry, however, points out that the methodology of the Legault budget had “not really been “challenged””. Former minister Nicolas Marceau, who at the time put his signature on the budget as an expert economist, also remembers a weak reaction from the federalist camp.
“The reactions focused on what was not in the budget. Besides, I expect it to be the same this time,” he says.
Today, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon believes that the cumulative evidence is increasingly clear. “Over time, when you have reached six, seven exercises which conclude on the viability of an independent Quebec… Then, when you have reached 150 university studies which have looked into this. There, at a given moment, there begins to be no doubt about this aspect of the project. »