This text is taken from the Courrier de la Planète of September 6, 2022. To subscribe, click here.
Build new hydroelectric dams? The head of the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ), François Legault, declared that he would ask Hydro-Québec to carry out studies to weigh this option. The outgoing prime minister also wants the state-owned company to develop wind farms to meet short-term electricity needs.
To put these announcements into context, The Planet Courier spoke today with Normand Mousseau, scientific director of the Trottier Energy Institute at Polytechnique Montréal and professor of physics at the Université de Montréal. He co-authored a report, released last week, on the “strategic outlook” for Canada’s electricity sector.
Should we produce more electricity in Quebec? Or could we simply bet on energy efficiency?
“According to our analyses, the energy efficiency would not be sufficient. We can go and recover a little energy, but the challenge for the next few years is really decarbonization,” replies Mr. Mousseau. Increasing the energy efficiency of electrical systems — in buildings, for example — requires a large labor force, but the available workers will already be hard at work replacing systems that run on fossil fuels. “From a structural point of view, you cannot do both at the same time. It is therefore absolutely necessary to increase the production of electricity.”
In your recent publication A Strategic Perspective for the Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Canada, what do you recommend for new electricity generation?
We have not recommended any particular technology. Nevertheless, our modeling indicates that wind power is the most appropriate option for Quebec. This technology is the least expensive to meet our needs. When it’s cold and windy, that’s when the demand for electricity is greatest. Another interesting option is the addition of turbines to our current large dams, in order to increase peak power.
And what about solar?
The problem with solar is that it is not synchronized with demand. The big demand in Quebec is in winter. But the days are shorter, so there is less solar production. From a strategic point of view, wind power is much more interesting than solar power.
What about hydroelectric dams? Their tanks act like big batteries that provide power when needed.
That is true for current dams. The problem with potential new dams is that we would be very limited in our ability to create large reservoirs. In the James Bay area, 10,000 square kilometers were flooded. It’s hard to imagine that we would flood such large areas… It’s technically feasible, but from the angle of acceptability, I don’t believe in it. That’s why I don’t think hydraulics is really a winning avenue in Quebec. The cost is more expensive than for wind energy—we saw it with La Romaine—and that, for reservoirs that are not very large.
The Magpie River, on the North Shore, is sometimes mentioned when it comes to new dams. However, it has the status of “legal personality” and the local communities, in particular the Innu, are determined to protect it. Are these elements insurmountable obstacles for the realization of large hydroelectric dam projects?
I think that’s a big hurdle. The Magpie is the last major river in southern Quebec not to have been harnessed for hydropower, so I’m not sure a dam could be built there. There are significant environmental opposition challenges. Otherwise, you would have to go further north, where there are still big rivers, but the costs would quickly increase.
We want to act quickly to have carbon-neutral electricity: does that militate in favor of the development of wind power? Or should we think long-term and consider hydroelectric dams, which take years to build?
You have to do both! We must ensure that we have enough electricity so that access to this energy does not hinder decarbonization investments. At the Trottier Institute, we anticipate serious problems for 2030. People who want to connect to the electricity grid will not be able to do so. This will be true in Quebec, but even more so in Ontario and the Maritime provinces, where this will be a major blockage. The solution is to build upstream, even if it means having a little too much electricity. We will need to increase the capacity by 5 to 10% in the short term, but from 2030 to 2050, we will need 50% more electricity.
Last week, the US Supreme Court rendered a decision rather favorable to Hydro-Québec’s plan to export electricity to New England. Does this change the situation for major dam projects in Quebec?
It increases the pressure for us to plan our supply. With New York and Boston, 20 TWh will be sold abroad [par rapport à une production totale de 212 TWh au Québec en 2019]. We will not be able to stop exports, these are fixed contracts. So that gives us less flexibility.
How does Mr. Legault’s announcement compare to what was already in Hydro-Québec’s last strategic plan?
It seems to go a little further. Hydro-Québec is very cautious. For the Crown corporation, there is no question of starting planning tomorrow morning. She tells us: don’t worry about the next few years, energy efficiency will be sufficient to meet demand. This is not what we foresee at the Trottier Institute.