Many housing starts records were broken in 2021 in Quebec, especially in rural areas. But a shortness of breath begins to be felt, notes the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
No less than 67,962 housing starts were launched in the province in 2021, 26% more than the previous year, according to data released Tuesday by the federal body. “It’s huge”, summarizes the Duty CMHC economist Francis Cortellino.
Part of this difference is explained by a pushback effect following the slowdown in residential construction during the March 2020 lockdown. The upward trend, however, goes beyond these exceptional pandemic-related circumstances. Indeed, we have to go back to 1987 to identify as many housing starts in one year, all types of housing combined, and to 1955 for rental and residential apartments.
“It’s not just a question of repression,” confirms Mr. Cortellino. There is not much supply on the market, prices are on the rise and there is an increase in demand to move. You have all the ingredients to have incentives to do residential construction. »
Thus, despite record new construction, demand continues to clearly exceed supply in several regions of the province, where there is a housing shortage.
The rural environment is popular
Growth in housing starts last year was also significantly higher in rural areas, at 56%, than it was in densely populated metropolitan areas, where it was rather high. at 21%, still compared to 2020.
This gap between the city and the rural regions is not unrelated to the fact that many residents of major centers, including Montreal, have moved elsewhere in the province since the start of the pandemic. According to data from the Institut de la statistique du Québec, the population of the metropolis fell by 46,717 inhabitants between 1er July 2020 and the 1er July 2021, for the benefit of other Quebec cities. “It facilitated construction in rural areas,” explains Francis Cortellino.
The share of housing starts captured by metropolitan areas in the province has thus decreased, from 79% to 72% between 2019 and 2021. Meanwhile, this percentage has doubled in rural areas, from 9% to 16% , show CMHC data. The organization is also wondering whether this phenomenon, stimulated by the increased use of teleworking in the context of the pandemic, will continue after the pandemic.
“When a couple sits down to decide where they are going to live, it is sure that the reflection now is taken into consideration that we can go to the office just once or twice a week instead of five days. , notes Mr. Cortellino. The pandemic has changed the rules of the game, so people’s thinking about where they will stay may change. »
“It’s going to be something to follow,” adds the economist.
Downward trend
A downward trend in housing starts is beginning to be felt, however. Their number fell by 22% in December across the country, compared to the previous month. This decrease reaches 25% for Quebec.
“If we look at the average of the last few months, we see a slowing pace in housing starts in Quebec,” confirms Mr. Cortellino.
CMHC thus expects the pace of residential construction, although sustained, to be weaker this year than it was in 2021.