For the second month in a row, a Léger poll credits the Parti Québécois (PQ) with 32% of voting intentions, down two points from its March-April peak. This is exactly the result he obtained in 2012, the only time he had to settle for a minority government.
More than two years before the next election, it would be premature to see a ceiling there. For the moment, the gap between the PQ and the other parties remains significantly greater than twelve years ago, but its lead over the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) has been reduced from 12 to 7 points in three months. At this rate, even if a parliamentary majority remains plausible for the moment, it would be very close for the scenario to change completely.
The ways of the electorate are inscrutable and they sometimes have the gift of choosing what seems to them to be the best of both worlds. During the last National Council of the PQ, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon showed great temerity by declaring that the holding of a referendum before the end of this decade was a “certainty”.
Whether the PQ rises or falls, support for “yes” stagnates desperately. Electing a minority PQ government would be the best way to get rid of the CAQ, while avoiding the holding of a referendum which a majority of Quebecers clearly do not want. That would be so much less painful than having to vote no. With “good government” as a bonus!
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Certainly, a minority government could theoretically have the referendum question adopted by the National Assembly thanks to the support of Québec solidaire (QS). However, it seems very unlikely that the new pragmatism desired by Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois will go that far.
The parliamentary leader of QS clearly indicated that he intended to use the PQ as a scarecrow to cement the unity of his party. Now that the collapse caused by the resignation of Émilise Lessard-Therrien seems to have been stopped, he will certainly not become an accomplice in holding a “referendum against immigration”.
They say that bad news never comes alone, but good news can also add up. The 3-point increase in CAQ voting intentions recorded by Léger coincides with the first cut in the Bank of Canada’s key rate in four years, which caused a sigh of relief across the country.
The Legault government can reasonably hope that the gloom caused by the galloping inflation of recent years will gradually fade by the next election. The bill which provides for a three-year moratorium on evictions will perhaps not be enough to rebuild the image of the Minister responsible for Housing, France-Élaine Duranceau, but the government has finally given the impression of having understood the drama that is the housing crisis.
He is now betting that the effects of the reforms undertaken by the Minister of Health, Christian Dubé, will be perceptible within two years and that the confrontation with doctors will turn to his advantage. This would be a great first in fifty years.
It is undoubtedly mortifying for Prime Minister Legault to note that the rise of his party coincides with the greatest discretion that he has been convinced to observe, but this is an application like any other of the proverb that the end justifies the means.
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The interim leader of the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ), Marc Tanguay, reiterated that he will not enter the race to succeed Dominique Anglade, even if the Léger poll identifies him as the favorite of 30% of voters Liberals, 18 points ahead of Denis Coderre, who seemed to crush the competition before his departure for Compostela.
At the last general council, Mr. Tanguay surprised more than one by advocating the austerity policies of the Couillard government, suggesting that a future government led by the PLQ would also clean up public finances.
Liberal voters seem to have appreciated his intervention to the point of seeing him as their new champion, but the PLQ itself lost 2 points. Those entering the race would do well to take note. We can very well find something to celebrate in the liberal past without wanting to repeat the same mistakes.
Nearly three in four Liberal voters indicated that they preferred a potential candidate who declined the invitation or that they were in the undecided camp. This means that those who plan to be in the ranks do not arouse great enthusiasm, but the same thing could have been said of PSPP.
The big absentee from this survey is of course the federal Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, François-Philippe Champagne, whom liberal activists see in their soup, but who does not seem to have any desire to soak in it. Besides, none of the other party leaders would regret seeing him stay in Ottawa.