Quebec has regained its letters of nobility, say Quebecers who have been in the Toronto business community for several decades. The province’s rapid economic recovery after the health crisis – the best in the country according to a recent Scotiabank analysis – crowns 20 years of growth, for an economy that no longer has an inferiority complex, according to Robert Hogue, economist of Quebec origin. “There was a pretty good feeling [du Québec] over the last few years on Bay Street, ”recounts this University of Montreal graduate who works at RBC Bank and has lived in Ontario for 30 years.
If Quebecers like Robert Hogue tended to leave the territory in the 1980s and 1990s in favor of Ontario to find a job, the movement was temporarily reversed this year: the net outflows to Quebec from the Ontario reached an all-time high in the second quarter of 2021, reports Scotiabank, a sign of “good economic growth,” notes Simon Savard, senior economist at the Institut du Québec.
30 years ago, Ontario, which represents a benchmark for the Quebec government in its quest for a more prosperous province, had a GDP per capita 25% higher than that of Quebec. Today, the difference is only around 13%. And by 2036, Finance Minister Eric Girard aims to simply eliminate it.
“The departure of Anglo-Montrealers and political instability have taken a toll on Quebec’s economic vitality for 35 years. But one thing is certain, Quebec has a great education system and, ultimately, smart people make things happen, especially when the government is balancing budgets and the threat of separation is almost non-existent, ”thinks Rod Bell, a Montreal-born real estate manager who has lived in Toronto since the mid-1980s.
Quebec’s rapid post-pandemic economic recovery may be short-lived, members of the Toronto business community warn, but certain indicators, such as house prices, could help Quebec continue to catch up with Ontario.
Advantageous removals
Even though the average price of a house has climbed to more than $ 550,000 recently in Montreal, it is still far from the million, or more, spent on average by Torontonians, and this is “probably destined to continue in the future. next few years, ”according to Scotiabank. Now predominant, teleworking allows Torontonians to save money by moving to Quebec, while continuing to reside in a metropolis.
“I own a small house near downtown Toronto. If I wanted to sell it and move to Montreal, I could buy myself a completely renovated house with a view of Place Royale or the mountain ”, illustrates Derek Leebosh, a graduate of Westmount high school, who went to the Queen City in 1980. “I have Montreal friends who are thinking about retirement and who say more and more that they will come back to Montreal to take it,” explains the man who is now vice-president of an opinion research firm. public.
The Quebec economy has benefited from the absence of “the threat of separation”, thinks real estate manager Rod Bell. “We hear less about the linguistic context [à Toronto]. I think that over time, if something were to happen and that it did not happen, people say to themselves that the chances are low, ”comments economist Robert Hogue, regarding the referendum question.
“The world of finance in Toronto is no longer as concerned about Quebec’s internal policies as it was in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s,” says Robert Hogue. It focuses much more on the economic progress that has been made over the past two decades and on cleaning up the province’s finances. “
“In the 1980s and 1990s, Montreal and Quebec were seen as experiencing an economic depression,” recalls Derek Leebosh. The unemployment rate exceeded 12% during this period, before gradually decreasing over the years, reaching 5.7% in October. If the demographic haemorrhage of Quebec at the time of “101 or 401” (support for Bill 101 or departure by taking Highway 401 towards Toronto), in the 1980s and 1990s, was “historical”, the situation now appears to have recovered.
The world of finance in Toronto is no longer as concerned about Quebec’s internal policies, as it was in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.
Budgetary discipline
The efforts spanned several governments, believe three Quebecers who are members of the Queen City business community. “It’s been a long time since we started to sow seeds” for this rebound, affirms Dominic Mailloux, director of human resources for Bombardier Aviation, who arrived in Toronto in 2013. The balanced budget reached by Quebec before the pandemic allowed its rapid rebound and its good economic situation.
The tax measures were “difficult”, agrees Robert Hogue “but it still bore fruit,” he said. “It has been recognized in the investment world,” recounts the economist. The gap in GDP per capita fell from 13.7% in 2009 to 17.2% in 2015. Quebec subsequently experienced its best years of growth in 2017, 2018 and 2019, explains the senior economist at the ‘Institut du Québec, Simon Savard, who analyzed the economy of the two provinces two years ago as part of the report If the trend continues …
Challenges
Robert Hogue does not expect Quebec to do better than its neighboring province in 2022. Quebec’s challenges are primarily demographic, according to Simon Savard. Currently, 80 people aged 20 to 29 potentially enter the labor market, for 100 others aged 55 to 64 potentially retiring, a low rate, describes the economist.
The province will also have to increase its productivity if it wants to reduce the gap, notes Minister Girard in his mini-budget, which mentions Ontario 150 times. Productivity improved between 2017 and 2019, but “the gap with Ontario remains significant”.
“These are short-term results, we will have to see the impact of the aging population and the labor shortage”, analyzes Dominic Mailloux, also president of the Fédération des gens d’affaires francophones de l ‘Ontario. “A swallow does not make spring,” he said.