Posted yesterday at 9:00 a.m.
A renewed confidence
Difficult tomorrows for the four opposition parties, particularly for the Parti Québécois, whose leader had nevertheless carried out a different and positive campaign, acclaimed by many. The results will be painful and the party will need time to rebuild.
The status quo of Québec solidaire is also undoubtedly difficult to accept in the context where the party was positioning itself as the future official opposition, especially since the party is showing setbacks in the regions: the “orange taxes” will have hurt. The party now has four years to convince voters of the scale of the measures needed to tackle the climate crisis.
The Liberal Party of Quebec is doing better, good news for the leader, who should be able to temper the enthusiasm of people who were already coveting her position. A deserved respite after a campaign marked by the resilience of Mme Anglade, despite a difficult start.
With a score similar to that of the PLQ in percentage, the Conservative Party of Quebec ends this campaign empty-handed. Éric Duhaime’s supporters will quickly point out that the discussions around the voting system are not reserved for intellectuals, contrary to what François Legault maintains.
From a democratic point of view, the fact that nearly 15% of the electorate is not represented in the National Assembly is worrying: for lack of a place in Parliament, these voters risk continuing to take to the streets while turning away — and even more suspicious – of political institutions.
François Legault, finally, is rewarded for his management considered to be effective of the pandemic. Voters will thus have chosen to let him “continue”. However, faced with the landslide victory of the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ), he will have to know how to remain modest, remembering that a greater proportion of voters voted for one or the other of the opposition parties.
The fact that the CAQ is practically absent from the island of Montreal—with the exception of the riding of Pointe-aux-Trembles, in eastern Montreal—is also problematic, reflecting a polarization of the electorate based on a divide between the metropolis and the regions. Substantive work will therefore have to be done by the re-elected premier in order to win the trust of Montrealers, as the metropolis remains the economic heart of Quebec.
The re-election of the CAQ after 36 days of campaigning will make the most cynical say that it was futile to invest 115 million in this electoral event to achieve a predictable result. However, it should be remembered that this campaign was particularly rich in content, allowing voters to reflect on the issues facing Quebec, and the various avenues envisaged to deal with them.
At a time when world conflicts make us realize that democracy is not within everyone’s reach, let us consider ourselves blessed to have been able to attend this high point in our living together.
Campaigns that matter
Electoral studies have questioned for years the impact of short-term factors on the choice of voters. These factors relate to the course of the campaign, from the impact of communication to voters’ assessment of the leadership of party leaders. The verdict on the matter has evolved.
For a long time, research assumed that the vote is determined by long-term factors that develop through our social relationships and settle in us early in life, such as partisan identity or ideological anchoring. The more the partisan identity of a voter is constant and coherent (we will say that it is firm) over time, the less the electoral campaign is likely to influence his decision-making. The firmness of the partisan identity would be the first factor determining the vote.
For many years, when the vast majority of voters voted, generation after generation, for the same parties, it was argued that campaigns had little effect on their choice. However, for 30 years, partisan affiliations have been weakening here. The partisan system has been reconstituted, new parties are gaining popularity and are brought to power, such as the CAQ in 2018.
Voters are less loyal to parties, preferring to offer their vote to parties that offer them electoral commitments that are less ideological and more aligned with their expectations.
In this context of a more flexible electorate, campaigns become decisive. And the campaign we have just experienced is a good example of this. Despite the prime minister’s clumsy statements on immigration, the CAQ ran a campaign stuck to its message tailored to very specific voters.
At the same time, the leaders of the opposition parties also carried out, for the most part, disciplined campaigns in which their personalities were skilfully associated with the electoral promises of their party: Anglade and the positive contribution of immigration, St-Pierre Plamondon and the dignity of the independence project, Nadeau-Dubois and the anguish of a young father in the face of the climate crisis, and Duhaime and the defense of individual freedoms.
On the defensive, the prime minister struggled to enforce his commitments during the campaign. Nevertheless, his story was clear from the start: it’s going well, let’s continue!
This message convinced voters to renew their confidence in him. The super majority of more than 100 seats that certain projections dedicated to the CAQ almost manifested itself, a consequence of our electoral system.
Conversely, our voting system weighed down the opposition parties. Three formations saved their skin, but difficult post-election reflections await the PLQ, QS and the PCQ. The PQ is still alive, but with three deputies, the challenges ahead will be hard to meet. For these parties, will the 2022 election have served to lay the foundations for 2026?
Be that as it may, the CAQ obtains, in the face of this diminished and fragmented opposition, an indisputable second mandate. The government’s continuity and track record will have got the better of the taste for change. It could be different in four years.
Several new elected officials from all parties will make their entry into Parliament. Do we want them to govern for all of us, to go beyond overly partisan interests and to be driven by a constant desire to defend the common good of all Quebecers.