With four months to go until the presidential election, Democratic Americans living in Quebec are considering abstaining from voting on November 5. Disappointed by outgoing President Joe Biden’s poor performance in recent public appearances, these regulars who vote by mail doubt his ability to lead.
“I personally don’t think either candidate deserves my vote. If I vote for Joe Biden, I’m sending the message that I’m okay with someone that old running a country, and I’m not at all,” says Samantha Evans. Originally from Florida, she left the United States 10 years ago to live in Japan, then France, before settling in Montreal 2 years ago.
Whether it’s primaries, midterm elections or presidential elections, Mr.me Evans has never missed an opportunity to exercise her right to vote since leaving Uncle Sam’s country. But for the first time, she is considering abstaining from voting.
“It was awkward. Joe Biden seemed confused and old during the debate,” the 33-year-old Democrat said.
In the 2020 presidential election, Democrats Abroad counted nearly 1.8 million U.S. expats who received mail-in ballots. In Canada, 620,000 U.S. citizens are eligible to vote in the presidential election.
PHOTO MARCO CAMPANOZZI, THE PRESS
American Samantha Evans settled in Montreal two years ago.
Among these voters, only 8% exercised their right to vote in the last presidential election, deplores Erin Kotecki Vest, spokesperson for this organ of the Democratic Party whose mission is to mobilize voters outside the country.
“For us, this demonstrates that there is a huge potential to increase the participation and impact of these voters.”
Another option on the table
While Tamara Devine, a 42-year-old Democrat, agrees with M.me Evans, she doubts that her vote will go to Joe Biden, after his face-off against Mr. Trump.
“It was hard to watch. I had to turn the TV off in the middle of the debate,” M said.me Devine, who has been living in Quebec since January.
PHOTO MARIKA VACHON, THE PRESS
Tamara Devine, American expatriate in Quebec
I felt like I was watching my grandfather forget his words or telling the same story for the third time. It was sad.
Tamara Devine, American expatriate in Quebec, on Joe Biden’s performance in the last debate
Mme Devine, who fears a second term for Donald Trump and the rise in violence associated with the patriotism he espouses, says she is open to other options. If Joe Biden stays in the race, she may vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — John F. Kennedy’s nephew and a former environmental lawyer who has been rejected by some in the Kennedy clan for his libertarian and conspiracy theories.
“I don’t agree with everything RFK Jr. stands for, I don’t support the anti-vaccine remarks he’s made, but he has energy and innovative proposals,” said Mr.me Guess.
Democrats worried
This movement of disavowal of Joe Biden among Americans outside the United States worries the Democrats who are counting on the vote of expatriates to win the election.
“We know that a third candidate has no chance of winning and we know that a Biden defeat would sow absolute chaos and destruction to our democracy,” warns Erin Kotecki Vest.
Americans abroad represent a segment of voters whose impact has been underestimated in the past, says Bruce Heyman, a former U.S. ambassador to Ottawa who works with Democrats Abroad to inform Americans living in Canada about their right to vote and how to exercise it.
In the 2016 presidential election, he realized the electoral potential of the American vote abroad when Hillary Clinton lost in Michigan by 10,704 votes, in Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes, and in Wisconsin by 22,748 votes. This margin of 77,744 votes cost her the electoral votes needed to win.
PHOTO MARTIN CHAMBERLAND, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
Bruce Heyman, former U.S. Ambassador to Ottawa, in 2016
As I was doing this analysis, I thought, “Wow.” There are perhaps more Americans living in Canada who could have changed the course of this election in favor of Hillary Clinton.
Bruce Heyman, former U.S. ambassador to Ottawa
This observation is shared by Democrats Abroad. Americans abroad allowed Democrats to make gains in the states of Georgia and Arizona in the 2022 midterm elections, underlines Mme Kotecki Vest.
“Every vote counts”
“In the United States, the more divided the country is, the closer the contests are,” says American politics expert Graham G. Dodds, a professor of political science at Concordia University. “In this case, every vote counts and can tip the balance.”
He cites the example of Republican George W. Bush’s victory over Democrat Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, which was decided by a difference of 537 ballots in the state of Florida.
“For me, it’s the oldest democracy in modern history that is in danger in November,” says Rémi Francœur, a Franco-American from New Hampshire who has lived in Quebec for eight years.
Despite his reservations about Mr. Biden’s age, the political scientist and former Democratic and Republican campaign organizer plans to vote for the Democratic candidate. “I worry about the democracy of our neighbors and the consequences that could be suffered here. For me, it’s 100% Biden.”