OTTAWA | The solid majority of the CAQ government will be of no help to him at the federal negotiating table where François Legault will have to work to improve his relations with Justin Trudeau if he wants to get what he wants, warns the ex-minister of Intergovernmental Affairs Benoît Pelletier.
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Making gains in intergovernmental relations, “it depends a lot on the quality of the relationship between the prime ministers,” says Mr. Pelletier.
However, “there seems to be a cooling”, between Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Legault, he notes.
The two men have by nature few hooked atoms. But François Legault only made matters worse by openly taking sides with Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives in the last federal election.
Mr. Trudeau did nothing to pick up the slate by presenting a throne speech, much of which encroached on provincial jurisdictions.
All of this “doesn’t bode well,” worries Mr. Pelletier, a former minister in the Charest government, now a professor at the Faculty of Law at the University of Ottawa.
The next CAQ Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs will therefore have a lot of diplomatic work to do to build bridges, he who will have to defend important grievances in Ottawa.
Overview of the three most important federal projects of the Legault government.
Health transfers
Increasing health transfers was at the top of the shopping list that François Legault presented to federal leaders during the federal campaign a year ago.
In this regard, Quebec is not alone. The provinces and territories are united in demanding that the federal government pay its fair share, that is to say 50% of the pharaonic health bill.
Ottawa, which has already absorbed half of the health bill in the past, only assumes 22% according to the Council of the Federation, which is calling for an increase from 22% to 35%.
For the whole country, this would represent this year $28 billion paid unconditionally and on a recurring basis. Quebec’s share would amount to $6 billion.
Former minister Pelletier, who himself wrung an asymmetrical health care agreement from Ottawa, foresees a merciless fight between the two camps, as Ottawa has shown no sign of opening up in recent months.
Throughout the health crisis, the Trudeau government has postponed negotiations until after the pandemic. But in recent months, he hasn’t committed to anything. Rather, he insists on having done more than his share during the pandemic and instead wants to impose national standards for the care of the elderly.
“It will be very difficult to negotiate an unconditional agreement,” warns Mr. Pelletier.
Immigration
Under current conditions, Ottawa deals with refugees, family reunification and citizenship. Quebec, for its part, controls the volume of entry of its future permanent residents, economic immigrants, their integration and francization.
The CAQ government is demanding that Ottawa also cede control of the flow of temporary foreign workers and family reunification to it, in order to favor French-speaking immigrants.
For Mr. Pelletier, “if Ottawa wanted to, we could easily increase Quebec’s powers in immigration”. He explains that ceding such powers, “it does not require constitutional amendment, it is done on the basis of good political will”.
However, if before the campaign, “there was a certain awareness” of the Liberal team to the issue of Francophone immigration, notes Mr. Pelletier, breaking sugar on the backs of immigrants in recent weeks, the caquistes burned bridges.
In a press scrum on Tuesday, Quebec government lieutenant Pablo Rodriguez cut short the grievances of the CAQ troops.
“Quebec currently has all the tools in hand to choose the vast majority of these immigrants,” he said.
French language
In a press briefing yesterday on Île d’Orléans, the Quebec Prime Minister said he had indicated from his first call with Mr. Trudeau that his priority would be to “protect and promote French”.
“He seemed open to working on it, so I’m very happy,” said the chief caquiste.
However, everything indicates that Ottawa does not intend to grant Quebec the right to submit to Bill 101 companies under federal jurisdiction on its territory.
A Bloc Québécois bill was rejected by the Liberals and Conservatives last week. The Trudeau government prefers to move forward with its own Official Languages reform, which excludes this specific claim.
In addition, Mr. Pelletier warns that Ottawa could very well rise up against Bill 96, which aims to impose stricter requirements for the use of French for workplaces, municipalities, courts and public services and will establish a enrollment cap for Anglophone CEGEPs.
The Trudeau government does not hide that it has “concerns” with regard to this law. Mr. Pelletier believes that he could very well participate in a possible challenge in the Supreme Court of Law 96, as for Law 21 on the secularism of the State.
– With Raphael Pirro