Liberals less concerned than before about deficits. A CAQ government that would finance its tax cuts from the payments provided for in the Generations Fund. A public debt that would remain relatively under control…
Political parties have made progress in terms of electoral transparency, experts note. Even if all this can, despite everything, remain difficult to digest for ordinary mortals, the unveiling of their financial frameworks forces politicians more than ever to explain and quantify their promises.
Bringing to the fore a repeated request, among others, from the Association of Quebec Economists (ASDEQ), the Chair in Taxation and Public Finance at the University of Sherbrooke issued a solemn warning to political parties last month Quebecer about to enter the election campaign. You will no longer have any excuses for not presenting the economic and budgetary impacts of your electoral programs in a clear and comparable manner, she said, recalling in particular that they now had access to a pre-election report on Quebec’s public finances. , also controlled by the Auditor General, as well as reliable calculation and simulation tools.
The five main parties in the race answered the call and presented financial frameworks extending until the end of their possible mandate in 2026-2027. “I think there is reason to be happy. It’s clearly better than the other times,” observed in an interview with To have to the professor and holder of the chair, Luc Godbout.
The figures are not always comparable between the parties: some of them did not follow the recommendation made to them not to change certain major parameters of the pre-election report, such as the expected growth of the economy or the rates of interest. This is particularly the case for the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) and the Conservative Party of Québec (PCQ), which have granted themselves slightly higher economic growth due to the positive impact they attribute to their policies.
On the other hand, it may be legitimate to give yourself a little extra boost from the economy when you are convinced of the effectiveness of your measures, admits Luc Godbout. “The important thing is to be transparent and explain these changes. However, the explanations are not always clear. »
A government is a big ship that cannot suddenly change course. We should not be too surprised if the gaps between the parties are not always as large as we would think, especially over a horizon of only five years, explains Yves St-Maurice, researcher at the chair. “Sometimes the big differences are less in the big metrics than in how it’s done. »
This is the case, for example, of the way the parties have chosen to return to a balanced budget. Some, like the CAQ, propose to finance their tax cuts by reducing payments to the Generations Fund; others, like Québec solidaire, will help themselves with large increases in revenue.
The financial executives nevertheless reveal “parties which are fairly consistent with the expectations we had of them”, continues Luc Godbout.
Unsurprisingly, a government led by a left-wing party like Québec solidaire (QS) would show higher spending than a Conservative government. Other situations are more unusual, such as seeing the old party of “rigor” – or “austerity”, it depends – anticipating increasingly large deficits. “It seems that the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) is inspired by the federal Liberals of 2015, who questioned the relevance of pursuing a balanced budget. »
On these questions, Yves St-Maurice is surprised at the somewhat cavalier way in which the parties seem to consider their obligations under the laws on balanced budgets and the Generations Fund. “I understand that everyone agrees that the time has come to review these laws and that an election is probably not the time to discuss these issues, but it is striking to see how we allow ourselves freedoms without even explain them. »
Voters shouldn’t worry too much if they are still struggling to navigate the financial frameworks of political parties — or even just to sort out who is promising what in this campaign — says Luc Godbout. “It’s like a Rubik’s cube where you have to take into account several faces at the same time. The slightest change to one element, be it taxes, expenditures, the budget balance or the Generations Fund, can have an impact on the others. »
“Financial executives remain relatively hermetic things that mainly interest experts,” admits Yves St-Maurice in turn. These tools nevertheless have an immense power to clarify the electoral debate, he believes. “This forces political parties to commit themselves. They are obliged to put their promises on paper, to explain them and to quantify them. The population can then rely on something more concrete to ask them questions. It’s worth it, just for that. »