“Same”
We start with the least sexy word and we use quotes since it is taken from a quote. In interview with Press, during the weekend, the general manager Marc Bergevin said, in defense of his head coach Dominique Ducharme, that he was counting on “the same players as in the final, minus three or four and the injured”. The lightness of the statement clashes a little with the gravity of the situation. In fact, when we compare the two squads, 11 players are missing from the last playoffs. They have left the organization, retired or are injured in the long term. By compiling the minutes played by each of the Canadiens’ players in the playoffs, we see that 41% of the summer’s forwards are missing, as are 53% of the defenders and 100% of the goalies (Price). The “same players”, then? Not really.
Adjustment
With all these departures, it was necessary to find replacements. There were many new faces. Christian Dvorak, Mike Hoffman and David Savard were the best known. However, a period of adjustment was inevitable. Hoffman isn’t a five-on-five ace, but on the power play he is an obvious threat. Savard took a long time to get going. Often taken out of position, he had forged a sad differential of -7 in his first 14 games. In his last 6 outings (0), he has done better than Ben Chiarot (- 4), Jeff Petry (- 3) and Brett Kulak (- 4). As for Dvorak, it is still laborious, especially in defense. Of the 161 forwards on the circuit who have played more than 200 five-on-five minutes this season, there are 160e for shots granted by 60 minutes of play, 149e for goals allowed and 134e for the quality scoring chances awarded.
Chair
This explains this, several players are no longer in the “right chair”, recently illustrated Ducharme. The most glaring example is certainly Jeff Petry. Last season, right-hangers Petry and Shea Weber pretty much evenly parted cover with the opposing top forwards five-on-five. This balance is totally upset. Press compiled the ice time of Petry and David Savard, who follows him in the defense hierarchy, against the top 10 scorers among forwards the Canadiens have faced this season. The result is startling. Petry played 55% more minutes than his teammate in such circumstances, despite the two players having relatively similar ice time. Result: the American is no longer a shadow of himself: only 2 assists in 20 games, and 28 turnovers, a peak in the NHL.
PHOTO ANDRÉ PICHETTE, ARCHIVES THE PRESS
Jeff petry
Depth
The term is completely overused, but what it embodies is nonetheless critical. All teams praise themselves for their “depth”, meaning the abundance of resources at a given position. Especially in the center, where the Canadian’s situation is… interesting. After barely 20 games, the CH has already used eight different players: Nick Suzuki, Christian Dvorak, Jake Evans, Cédric Paquette, Adam Brooks, Mathieu Perreault, Jonathan Drouin and Ryan Poehling. Injuries forced certain choices, but it was above all the unclear organization chart behind Suzuki that created this instability – see the “Chair” section. Is Dvorak a second or a third center? And Evans, a third or a fourth? Has Poehling finally found his place? We will talk about it again in the mid-season report.
Specials
Special units don’t work, but not at all. The CH languishes at 28e league rank in power play (14.8% efficiency) and 29e shorthanded (69.2%). Short of a man, the explanation lies mainly in terms of available personnel. Phillip Danault left, and in the absence of Shea Weber, Joel Edmundson and Paul Byron, a complete quartet fell by the wayside. On the power play, it’s more surprising, as three of the top four scorers from last year are back. We can not blame him full responsibility for the woes of his club, but again, Jeff Petry is an obvious candidate for the donkey cap. The club’s top scorer on the power play in 2020-2021, he is still looking for his first point this season. His shortcomings cost him his place on the first wave for the benefit of Chris Wideman.
Aid
The Montreal public knew little about the NHL Player Assistance Program. It has changed a lot since Carey Price joined to fight substance use issues. Here is the goalkeeper back in the entourage of the team, but the management has been clear: we will not rush his return, he who is also recovering from a knee operation. No date is mentioned, to the point where one wonders if he will play before Christmas. In 2015-16 and 2017-18, two seasons that saw Price sidelined for extended periods of time, his team missed the playoffs by a considerable margin. The trend seems to be continuing.
PHOTO DAVID BOILY, PRESS ARCHIVES
Carey Price
Guardians
Without Price, the burden of the first keeper naturally fell on Jake Allen. Before injuring himself, the latter was also the busiest goalkeeper on the circuit. Whether we point out his overuse or not, Allen hasn’t been terrific. The same could be said of Samuel Montembeault and Cayden Primeau (sold to the Laval Rocket on Sunday). We can point out in broad strokes how the club’s skaters struggle to score, the goalkeepers are also their fault. Together, Allen, Montembeault and Primeau maintained a stop rate of .918, at 21e league rank, which isn’t bad. On the other hand, this efficiency drops to .776 on high danger shots (29e rank). And, in total, the mathematical model of the NaturalStatTrick site establishes that they allowed 3 to 4 goals too many (3.32, in fact) given the quality of the shots they faced. Transposed over a full season, this trend could hurt a lot.
Inability
We have just scratched the surface: the players before did not give much love to their goalkeepers. The power play is flat, and at even strength, the offense suffers from a chronic inability to convert its quality scoring chances. The team is in fact ranked in 17e room for his chances, far ahead of the 29e rank given by his meager average of 1.81 goals per 60 minutes. It’s even worse for the percentage of success on high danger shots: barely 10.66% of them become goals, in 32e and last position. The difference between the goals scored and the anticipated goals is also significant: the Habs should have scored 6 to 7 more goals (6.82). So there is hope here: the law of averages suggests better days.
Contract
The question is asked almost daily: what is the real impact of the uncertainty surrounding Marc Bergevin’s future? The CEO is the last year of his contract, and his boss, Geoff Molson, is slow to offer him a new agreement. Bergevin ensures that he does not feel limited in his work. However, invariably, the more time advances, the more this parameter will enter into the analysis of the gestures that it will or will not make. If the CH continued to sink between now and the transaction deadline, would he allow himself some bold initiatives if his position became more precarious than ever? It is obviously not the contract of the DG which dictates the behavior of the team on the ice. But the situation is fueling the ambient instability.
Hole
We saved the most depressing for last. Several times, already, Brendan Gallagher spoke of the “hole” in which his team sank since the beginning of the season. The image is strong, but fair. All indicators are against the Canadian. It is generally estimated that at American Thanksgiving, which will be celebrated on Thursday, about 12 of the 16 teams already in position to make the playoffs will consolidate their places before the end of the season. Here is the CH at seven points of the playoffs, with several games less to play than the clubs which precede it. In addition, it seems established that a minimum of 95 points is required to participate in the playoffs. With 62 games to go, the Habs are missing 83, or 66.9% of the points available. Obviously nothing is impossible. But for a club which still has not won two games in a row, things are shaping up… how to put it? Hard ? Probably yes.
– With data from NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick, before Sunday’s games