Make no mistake, the next revolution is not that of artificial intelligence (AI), but that of the quantum computer. A new race is emerging today between the United States and China, who want to get their hands on this new technology, and it is not for nothing: if AI manages to imitate human behavior, the quantum computer has the potential to predict it.
The quantum computer is not yet fully functional, but the coming years will see the emergence of prototypes capable of pushing the limits of what we thought possible. Already in 2016, IBM released its first model. Google responded in 2021 by creating a 127-qubit quantum computer, only to be downgraded the following year by IBM and its 433-qubit device. Know that a 300-second calculation carried out by a 53-qubit quantum computer would take the most powerful traditional computer in the world 15,000 years.
One area affected by the quantum revolution is that of security. RSA encryption is the world’s most widely used cryptography algorithm for e-commerce. It currently protects your banking data and, rest assured, it protects it very well. It would take several billion years for a classical computer to “crack” the algorithm. Problem: the quantum computer deciphers it in seconds.
Questioning
What about in the cognitive domain? If there is one complex area where classical computers hit a wall, it is the human brain. The billions of atoms that compose it generate an incalculable number of neuronal connections. Incalculable…
This “fundamental” limit is now being called into question.
Scientific literature suggests that the quantum tool can calculate certain cognitive reactions. Two scientific articles, published in 2016 and 2022, argue that Quantum Decision Theory succeeds in explaining the prediction of human decisions. Another study, carried out in 2022, shows that Quantum Support Vector Machines can outperform traditional algorithms in the area of predicting human behavior. It should be noted that these predictions are for the moment only simple cognitive reactions and are more successful in explaining than in truly calculating, but the quest for a computer capable of predicting behavior has only just begun.
By being predictable, human behavior, studied by the social sciences, now enters the domain of the natural sciences. And social science is no longer useful when the “social” can be calculated and predicted. Political scientists are no longer of any use when the results of an election are known years in advance. Political leaders are no longer needed when the best policies are delivered by an infallible machine. Military advisors are no longer relevant when the movement of enemy troops is predicted months before their occurrence.
Understand and choose
So is this the end of the social sciences?
No. The social sciences do not seek to calculate then predict, but rather to understand then choose. It is up to the social sciences to choose whether or not to follow the predictions of a quantum computer and determine their impact on the population. What should be determined as relevant facts, what prediction should be taken into account?
Let’s start again. The political scientist communicates with the public to change the outcome of an election. The political leader determines which citizens are left behind by the “best” policies. The military advisor deviates from established tactics to avoid the sacrifice of his men. “Best” depends on a value system. It is subjective, whether it comes from a human or a machine. And it is in this subjectivity that social science resides.