qualification for the quarter-finals, first place, elimination… What scenarios for the Blues against New Zealand?

Thierry Henry’s players play their last match of the group stage on Tuesday in Marseille, and are just one step away from qualifying as group leaders.

Gold is their stated goal. The players of the French Olympic football team have an important step to take before claiming the summits, Tuesday, July 30. They face New Zealand (at 7 p.m. on France 3 and france.tv) in Marseille with the goal of qualifying for the quarter-finals of the tournament. Franceinfo: sport takes stock of their favorable situation, just before this last day of the group stage.

One point is enough to be first and qualify for the quarter finals.

Leaders of their group with a three-point lead over the United States and their opponent of the day, the players of the French team are in an ideal situation before the outcome of the group stage. They have no interest in getting into calculations. If they do not want to depend on anyone, one point is enough for them to validate qualification for the quarter-finals and even first place in this group A. They must therefore not lose against New Zealand, an opponent who is coming off a stinging 4-1 defeat against the United States, themselves beaten 3-0 by the Blues.

Even if the French Olympic team were to lose on Tuesday, it has a very good chance of retaining its leadership position and finding the second place in Group B (Argentina, Morocco, Ukraine, Iraq) in the next round.

Potential opponents known just before kick-off

Two hours before France-New Zealand, the last two matches of Group B will be played. At 5pm, Argentina faces Ukraine, Morocco challenges Iraq. Before this last day, the four teams are tied on points (3 each). The suspense is total. The Argentinians are for the moment credited with first place thanks to a goal difference slightly superior to Morocco and Ukraine (+1 against 0 for the other two selections).

If the Blues do indeed finish first on their side, they will play their quarter-final in Bordeaux (August 2 at 9 p.m.) against the team from Group B that will finish second. Conversely, if they settle for second place, they will meet the leader of the same group, in Paris, at the Parc des Princes (August 2 at 3 p.m.).

An unlikely disaster scenario

After two wins in as many outings, an elimination of the Blues would seem improbable, but it remains mathematically possible. For it to happen, a whole bunch of conditions must come together that are not self-evident: a defeat by at least three goals against New Zealand and the success, at the same time, of the United States against Guinea.

In this very specific case, France, the United States and New Zealand would all be on 6 points. At the Olympic Games, in the event of a tie in points, it is the overall goal difference that is taken into account. With a differential of +4 before the last match, the Blues start with a significant advantage in this category (0 for the USA, -2 for New Zealand).