Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday paid tribute to his army, which he said prevented a “civil war” during the rebellion of the paramilitary group Wagner, for the moment forgiven but summoned to hand over its heavy weapons.
If the shock wave of the revolt led by the men of billionaire Evgueni Prigojine remains to be measured, the Kremlin has already denied that Vladimir Putin emerged weakened from this crisis, the worst in more than two decades of reign.
“You opposed these unrest, the result of which would inevitably have been chaos”, greeted Mr. Putin during a ceremony in front of soldiers in Moscow. “In effect, you have prevented a civil war,” he added.
Seriously, head bowed, the master of the Kremlin then observed a minute of silence in tribute to army pilots killed by the mutineers while they “did their duty with honor”.
Earlier, the Russian Ministry of Defence, a pet peeve of the Wagner group, had announced that “preparations [étaient] in progress for the transfer of heavy military equipment from Wagner to active units of the regular armed forces.
Such a measure seems intended to neutralize the Wagner group, whose leader has not appeared in public since the end of the rebellion on Saturday evening.
In a speech on Monday evening, the Russian president was pleased to have avoided “bloodshed” during this rebellion which saw the mutineers seize military sites in the south-west before going up with their tanks towards Moscow.
While denouncing a “treason”, Mr. Putin assured that Wagner’s fighters could return home, join the regular army or go to Belarus, whose leader Alexander Lukashenko served as mediator to stop the crisis.
Prigozhin in Belarus?
Mr. Lukashenko, rightly, estimated on Tuesday that the rebellion was the result of a mismanagement of the rivalries between Wagner and the Russian army which have continued to grow in recent months, an implicit criticism of Mr. Putin.
“The situation got away from us, then we thought it would resolve itself, but it didn’t resolve itself,” Lukashenko told reporters. “There are no heroes in this story,” he lamented.
Faced with Western leaders and analysts believing that Mr. Putin is coming out of this crisis greatly weakened, the Kremlin stepped up to the plate on Tuesday.
“We don’t agree,” replied the spokesman for the Russian presidency, Dmitry Peskov. “These events have shown how much society consolidates around the president,” he said.
The mutineers found that “the army and the people were not on their side”, added Mr. Putin.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who forged close ties with Mr. Putin before the conflict in Ukraine, considered that the power of the Russian president remained “stable” and that the rebellion had “not much meaning”.
In his only audio message broadcast since the end of the revolt, Mr. Prigojine defended himself on Monday for having tried to “overthrow the power”, claiming only to want to “save” his group which was threatened with being absorbed by the regular army.
While his whereabouts are unknown, some Belarusian media reported that a private jet belonging to Mr Prigozhin landed in Belarus on Tuesday morning, but neither he nor authorities have confirmed.
Prosecution dropped
In any case, a sign that an agreement seems to have been reached between Mr. Prigojine and the Kremlin, the security services (FSB) announced on Tuesday the abandonment of the proceedings against Wagner for “armed mutiny”.
This leniency, despite the death of an unknown number of army pilots admitted by Mr. Putin, contrasts with the relentless repression aimed at opponents and anonymous people denouncing the military offensive in Ukraine.
For many analysts, the aborted rebellion of the Wagner group has highlighted the weaknesses of Mr. Putin’s regime and his staff in the face of heavily armed men.
In a sign of concern, Mr Lukashenko said on Tuesday that he had ordered his army to be “combat ready” when the rebellion broke out.
Some analysts also believe that it could weaken Russian forces in Ukraine and benefit kyiv in its counter-offensive.
On Tuesday, Mr Putin claimed he “did not have to withdraw combat units from the ‘special military operation’ area to redeploy them to Russia during the mutiny.
In addition, while the conflict continues, Pope Francis’ envoy for peace in Ukraine, Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, is due to visit Moscow on Wednesday and Thursday, according to the Vatican.