The appointment in Russia of economist Andrei Beloussov as Defense Minister shows that Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long confrontation in Ukraine and is banking on the war economy to win it, analysts say.
At this stage, it is unclear whether the appointment of outgoing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as head of the National Security Council is a demotion, while the future of Nikolai Patrushev, an obscure but powerful figure who has held the position since 2008, is also uncertain.
The change, announced just days after Mr. Putin was inaugurated for a fifth term following elections in March that opponents said were rigged, comes as Russia seeks to shake up kyiv with advances in the north. eastern Ukraine.
Why Belousov?
Andreï Belooussov has held the position of Deputy Prime Minister responsible for the Economy since 2020. Like his recent predecessors, he has no experience in the army or security services.
But at a time when Russia intends to increase the defense budget to some 30% of total government spending, Vladimir Putin “must move even more towards a war economy and efficient military spending – and Andrei Beloussov is one of the economic leaders he trusts the most,” Ben Noble, associate professor of Russian politics at University College London, told AFP.
“Putin’s goal is to improve the efficiency of arms production and optimally meet military needs,” adds Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik consulting firm. “In this context, Beloussov is a logical choice.”
Towards a long war
Analysts say the appointment signals that the Kremlin is preparing Russia for a years-long war with Ukraine, where the balance between arms supply and production could determine who emerges victorious.
“The main point to remember is that Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long confrontation with the West,” summarizes Ben Noble.
Mr. Belousov strongly believes in the doctrine that Russia is surrounded by a “ring of enemies” and is the only one among President Putin’s team of economists to support the annexation of Crimea in 2014, which was followed by severe sanctions, notes a source cited by the Russian-language news site The Bell.
Fallen Shoigu?
Mr. Shoigu, a prominent figure in the Russian government in the 1990s even before Vladimir Putin came to power, has long been considered close to the president.
But the days when the two men shared saunas and shirtless expeditions in the wilds of the outgoing defense minister’s native Siberia are over.
Mr. Shoigu’s reputation was indeed tarnished by the diatribes of the late leader of Wagner’s mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who called him a “garbage bag” and by the arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov suspected of having accepted bribes.
However, his appointment as head of the National Security Council shows that he is not completely excluded from the elite even if “it remains to be seen what political and strategic role he will play in concrete terms”, notes Ben Noble.
Furthermore, doubts remain about the future importance of the Council, whose deputy head is none other than former President Dmitry Medvedev, who himself has lost his political influence.
“This appointment indicates that the real importance of the Security Council in the hierarchy is perhaps not as great as observers generally think,” said Tatiana Stanovaya.
What about Patrushev?
A personality who rarely speaks in public, Patrushev has always been considered an important actor and one of the greatest supporters of the “circle of enemies” doctrine.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he was removed from his post because he had accepted “a new position” which would be revealed in the “coming days”.
Who is leading the war?
As Mr. Beloussov has no military experience, his appointment further distances the Ministry of Defense from decision-making on the battlefield and strengthens the power of the military staff led by General Valery Gerasimov.
“The army has always been the prerogative of the chief of staff, he will continue his activities and no changes are currently envisaged in this regard,” assured Mr. Peskov.