(Washington) Russian President Vladimir Putin has no doubt that he will win another term. The election which leaves him waiting, and which could further influence his policy, will take place eight months later in the United States.
Publicly, Mr. Putin has said he prefers President Joe Biden to his predecessor and aspiring successor Donald Trump.
But observers interpret this statement to mean exactly the opposite, with the former KGB strongman hoping that this notoriety will give the Republican tycoon a boost.
Donald Trump has expressed admiration for Mr. Putin, raged against NATO, and boasted that he would end the war in Ukraine, which Russia invaded two years ago, in one day.
And Donald Trump’s supporters in Congress, citing an unrelated dispute over immigration, are blocking passage of about $60 billion in military aid for Ukraine, whose troops are running out of ammunition on the field. battle.
“Good deal at low prices”
In his annual State of the Union address on Thursday, Mr. Biden criticized Mr. Trump for saying he would encourage Mr. Putin to “do whatever he wants” if a NATO member country does not failed to meet its financial commitments to the US-dominated alliance.
“My message to President Putin, whom I have known for a long time, is simple: we will not give up. We will not bend. I will not bend,” he insisted.
For Leon Aron, researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, Vladimir Putin is waiting for the American election before considering any significant change, on the military or diplomatic level, in Ukraine.
“I don’t expect the Russians to attempt a major offensive in Ukraine that would cost them several hundred thousand men. The reason is that Putin is waiting to get a good deal at a low price,” he says.
According to him, Mr. Trump could block, if he was elected in November, the sending of weapons to Ukraine and “the only question mark would then be to know to what extent Europe would be pushed” to strengthen his support for Ukraine.
In one of the most criticized moments of his presidency, Mr. Trump appeared during a meeting in Helsinki to take at face value a denial by Mr. Putin of Russian interference in the 2016 election, against the conclusions of the American intelligence services.
The latter concluded that there was an operation by Russia to support the Republican to the detriment of his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton.
Fiona Hill, a former White House adviser under Donald Trump, explains that the latter considers Mr. Putin to be an “iconic figure”.
He appears “as someone who is capable of getting what he wants and who looks like the ultimate strongman,” according to this former official, who testified during Mr. Trump’s first impeachment proceedings, and who spoke at a recent meeting of conservatives opposed to the 77-year-old tycoon.
“Disappointed”
Relations with Russia have become a point of partisan divide in the United States, a development unthinkable decades ago when the Soviet Union was seen as posing the primary threat to most Americans.
Some conservatives see the Russian president as a guardian of traditional Christian values, including opposing the rights of LGBTQ people.
In February, former Fox TV star Tucker Carlson interviewed Mr. Putin, showing viewers a Moscow subway station “more beautiful than any station in our country” without graffiti or “smells.” nauseating.”
The interview was widely criticized for its lack of tough questions, with Putin himself saying he expected Mr Carlson to be more “aggressive”.
Figures such as Republican Sen. JD Vance and Elbridge Colby, a former Pentagon official under Trump, say Russia and Ukraine are a distraction from the more pressing threat they say China poses.
Former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, however, believes that this is a “small fringe” within the Republican Party.
Now an expert at the Atlantic Council, he points out that former President Trump approved the sending of Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, a measure that his predecessor Barack Obama opposed, and that he does not did not explicitly oppose the granting of new aid to Kyiv.
“There is some discrepancy between what Trump said and what his most ardent acolytes said. The Russians could therefore be disappointed if Mr. Trump wins,” concludes the expert.